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Update the weekend before

What with jetlag and work commitments I've found it difficult to get the energy to update the elections website, but have now done so.

What's interesting is the relatively high degree of stasis expected by the punters, with no change predicted by the majority for no less than 12 of the 18 constituencies, and a majority also expecting Arlene Foster to keep her seat in Fermanagh and South Tyrone despite defecting from the UUP to the DUP. Also the vast majority expect David Ervine's seat in East Belfast to go to the DUP.

The other four constituencies, however, are much more difficult to call. Opinion is almost evenly divided on whether or not the DUP can pick up a seat in East LondonDerry from the UUP. This is very difficult to call, with a DUP defector to the UKUP, in a constituency where an independent Unionist unexpectedly broke through in 1998, adding further complexity.

In South Belfast, the vast majority expect the DUP to pick up a seat from the UUP. But the interesting element is the Alliance Party, expected by a third of the punters to pick up a seat here - but who from? (Most likely SF; then possibly the SDLP; some hopefuls think the UUP).

In South Antrim, the vast majority expect Mitchell McLaughlin to pick up a seat for SF; but again, from whom? Most think Alliance's David Ford, but the SDLP are also seen as vulnerable by a minority.

Finally, the majority see three seats changing hands in Lagan Valley, with the DUP likely to keep both its defection gains from the UUP and SF also likely to gain a seat, but whether from the SDLP (slightly more likely) or Alliance (slightly less likely) is unclear.

My wishful thinking is, of course, that Alliance keeps both its difficult defences and wins in South Belfast; don't particularly mind who loses out. This time next week we will know for sure.

Comments

( 12 comments — Leave a comment )
jrittenhouse
Mar. 4th, 2007 02:42 am (UTC)
Any good places for us foreign-types to look to understand the welter of Northern Irish parties?
nwhyte
Mar. 4th, 2007 04:57 am (UTC)
I did a (slightly out of date) list here.
slimmeroftheyea
Mar. 4th, 2007 02:36 pm (UTC)
North Down
Any thoughts on our area?
nwhyte
Mar. 4th, 2007 03:13 pm (UTC)
Re: North Down
61% expect no change at all. 22% think the DUP can pick up a third seat (having gone from 0 to 2 last time); 12% think the Greens can break through; 19% think Bob has had it; 8% think Alliance will lose a seat; and there are one or two people who think pretty much any combination possible.
slimmeroftheyea
Mar. 6th, 2007 11:45 pm (UTC)
election
Just wanted to let you know that Alliance have certainly put themselves in poll position as far as I am concerned since they are the only party that have actually appeared here. Loughview candidate is Stephen Farry. Ian says he looks like Eamonn Holmes but in spite of this will be my no 1 tomorrow.
nwhyte
Mar. 7th, 2007 06:26 am (UTC)
Re: election
Glad to hear it!
(Anonymous)
Mar. 7th, 2007 12:40 pm (UTC)
Re: election
What, that Stephen looks like Eamon Holmes or the she's voting Alliance!

Yank in Ulster
nwhyte
Mar. 7th, 2007 01:41 pm (UTC)
Re: election
I don't need slimmeroftheyea to tell me that Stephen looks like Eamonn Holmes!
slimmeroftheyea
Mar. 7th, 2007 05:27 pm (UTC)
Re: election
As stated in my blog I was so keen to get into the polling station I tripped over a step outside. But I went down holding my polling card!!!
ianmcdonald
Mar. 7th, 2007 08:18 pm (UTC)
Re: election
And (whisper it) a touch of the Leon Brittans...

slimmeroftheyea
Mar. 7th, 2007 05:25 pm (UTC)
Mad Bob McCartney
How can the above stand in six different constituencies??? What happens if (heaven forbid) they all elect him? does he clone himself five times?? Now I am very afraid.
slimmeroftheyea
Mar. 7th, 2007 05:31 pm (UTC)
My father
As a dyed in the wool unionist should be spinning in his grave by now since my mother and myself both included the SDLP and Sinn Fein on our list. I gave the latter a sympathy vote for being brave enough to stand in North Down.
( 12 comments — Leave a comment )

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