Nicholas (nwhyte) wrote,
Nicholas
nwhyte

Irish election latest

Lots more numbers overnight. Below seats in bold have declared their final results; seats in red are where I have either changed my prediction from last night, or else been proved wrong by the result. FF not doing as well on transfers - including internal transfers - as I had expected.

Constituency Seats FG FF SF GP Lab SD PBP Ind
Carlow-Kilkenny 5 1 3 1 possible GP overtake 3rd FF
Cavan-Monaghan 5 1 2 2
Clare 4 1 2 1 0 I now think FG not Ind
Cork East 4 1 1 1 1 Count complete
Cork North-Central 4 1 1 1 1 0 I now think SPBP not Ind
Cork North-West 3 1 2 Count complete
Cork South-Central 4 1 2 1 Count complete
Cork South-West 3 0 1 1 1 SD did overtake FG; count complete
Donegal 5 1 2 2
Dublin Bay North 5 1 1 1 1 1 possible Green overtake SD
Dublin Bay South 4 1 1 1 1
Dublin Central 4 1 0 1 1 1 SD have overtaken FF
Dublin Fingal 5 1 1 1 1 1
Dublin Mid-West 4 1 1 2 SPBP currently ahead of FG but I think will slip behind again
Dublin North-West 3 1 1 1
Dublin Rathdown 3 2 1 Count complete
Dublin South-Central 4 1 1 1 1
Dublin South-West 5 1 1 1 1 1
Dublin West 4 1 1 1 1 Count complete
Dún Laoghaire 4 1 1 1 1 FF overtook 2nd FG; count complete
Galway East 3 1 1 1 Count complete
Galway West 5 1 1 1 2 Second Ind polling well.
Kerry 5 1 1 1 2
Kildare North 4 1 1 1 1 FG will overtake 2nd FF
Kildare South 3 1 1 1 plus CC (FF)
Laois-Offaly 5 1 2 1 1
Limerick City 4 1 1 1 0 1 Ind has overtaken GP
Limerick County 3 1 1 0 1 Ind overtook SF; count complete
Longford-Westmeath 4 1 1 1 1
Louth 5 1 2 1 1 Lab have overtaken FF
Mayo 4 2 1 1 Don't know how I miscounted that! Count complete
Meath East 3 1 1 1 Count complete
Meath West 3 1 1 1 (Ind is Aontu) Count complete
Roscommon-Galway 3 0 1 2 SF stayed ahead of FF
Sligo-Leitrim 4 0 1 1 1 1 Poor FG internal transfers lost seat to GP; count complete
Tipperary 5 1 1 1 2
Waterford 4 1 1 1 1
Wexford 5 1 1 1 1 1 Ind has overtaken 2nd FF
Wicklow 5 1 1 1 1 1 possible 2nd FG overtake GP
Total 159 36 42 37 9 7 5 4 19
Tags: world: ireland
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