Nicholas (nwhyte) wrote,
Nicholas
nwhyte

Irish election 2020

It's difficult to call the irish election without having seen where SF transfers go. But looking at first preferences (where we have them) and tallies (where we don't) I think this is a better election for FF than people are saying. I call:
FF 46+1 (bonus for the Ceann Comhairle)
FG 37
SF 37
GP 9
Lab 7
SD 3
SPBP 3
AO 1
Inds 16

This obviously puts FF in best position to lead the next govt. If I were Micheal Martin, I'd fancy a minority administration for a few months and then go to the polls again.

If SF transfers largely go Left rather than all over the place, it's a different matter.

IF.

My detailed analysis:

Constituency Seats FG FF SF GP Lab SD PBP Ind
Dublin Bay North 5 1 1 1 1 1 possible Green overtake SD
Dublin Bay South 4 1 1 1 1
Dublin Central 4 1 1 1 1 possible SD overtake FF
Dublin Fingal 5 1 1 1 1 1
Dublin Mid-West 4 1 1 2
Dublin North-West 3 1 1 1
Dublin Rathdown 3 2 1 possible SF overtake 2nd FG
Dublin South-Central 4 1 1 1 1
Dublin South-West 5 1 1 1 1 1
Dublin West 4 1 1 1 1
Dún Laoghaire 4 2 1 1 possible SF overtake 2nd FG
Carlow-Kilkenny 5 1 3 1 possible GP overtake 3rd FF
Kildare North 4 2 1 1 2nd FF vulnerable to FG or Lab
Kildare South 3+1 1 1+1 1 plus CC (FF)
Laois-Offaly 5 1 2 1 1
Longford-Westmeath 4 1 1 1 1
Louth 5 1 2 1 1 expect Lab to overtake FF
Meath East 3 1 1 1
Meath West 3 1 1 1 (Ind is Aontu)
Wexford 5 1 2 1 1 2nd FF weak but difficult to see who else
Wicklow 5 1 1 1 1 1 possible 2nd FG overtake GP; edit: I got SD mixed up with Lab here
Clare 4 2 1 1
Cork East 4 1 1 1 1
Cork North-Central 4 1 1 1 1
Cork North-West 3 1 2
Cork South-Central 4 1 2 1
Cork South-West 3 1 1 1 possible SD overtake FG
Kerry 5 1 1 1 2
Limerick City 4 1 1 1 1
Limerick County 3 1 1 1
Tipperary 5 1 1 1 2
Waterford 4 1 1 1 1
Cavan-Monaghan 5 1 2 2
Donegal 5 1 2 2
Galway East 3 1 1 1 SF could stay ahead of FF or FG
Galway West 5 2 1 1 1
Mayo 4 1 2 1
Roscommon-Galway 3 1 2
Sligo-Leitrim 4 1 1 1 1
Total 159+1 37 46+1 37 9 6 4 3 17
Tags: world: ireland
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