Nicholas (nwhyte) wrote,
Nicholas
nwhyte

Northern Ireland Westminster results 2019

First, it seems that I have a new fan (thanks to my old friend Bairbre for alerting me).

Here are the scores on the doors for the third election this year.

Full results:

DUP 8 seats (-2), 30.6% (-5.4%)
SF 7 seats (nc), 22.8% (-6.6%)
Alliance 1 seat (+1), 16.8% (+8.9%)
SDLP 2 seats (+2), 14.9% (+3.2%)
UUP 11.7% (+1.4%)

Comment: The best Westminster result ever for the Alliance Party, echoing the European Parliament result from May. Four seats changed hands: Alliance won North Down, vacated by Sylvia Hermon; Sinn Féin won North Belfast from the DUP; the SDLP won South Belfast from the DUP; and the SDLP also won Foyle from Sinn Féin. For the first time ever, Northern Ireland elected more Nationalists than Unionists. (Though Unionist parties still well ahead in vote share.)

Seats listed below by category (changes, DUP holds, SF holds) and by order of declaration in each category because I am too tired to be more creative. Apologies to candidates who got less than 10%, I will include your names when I update the website. Also giving indicative projection of Westminster result to Assembly election.

The four seats that changed hands

North Down

Stephen Farry (Alliance) 18358 - 45.2% (+35.9%)
Alex Easton (DUP) 15390 - 37.9% (-0.2%)
Alan Chambers (UUP) 4936 - 12.1%
Conservative 1959 - 4.8% (+2.4%)

Alliance had support from the Greens, and also clearly from many who had supported Independent MP Sylvia Hermon in previous elections. I think this is their highest ever vote share in a Westminster election.

Projected to an Assembly election, these votes would give Alliance the Greens’ seat (because they did not stand).

North Belfast

John Finucane (SF) 23,078 - 47.1% (+5.4%)
Nigel Dodds (DUP) 21,135 - 43.1% (-3.1%)
Alliance 4,824 - 9.8% (+4.4%)

Nigel Dodds had the fourth highest personal vote tally in Northern Ireland; but John Finucane had the third highest, in the only seat where SF’s vote share increased. The SDLP and UUP both stood down here; despite the squeeze, Alliance managed to increase vote share.

Projected to an Assembly election, these votes would probably give Alliance the SDLP seat (the SDLP did not stand).

South Belfast

Claire Hanna (SDLP) 27,079 - 57.2% (31.0%)
Emma Little-Pengelly (DUP) 11,678 - 25.0% (-5.8%)
Paula Bradshaw (Alliance) 6,786 - 14.3% (-4.0%)
UUP 1,259 - 2.7% (-0.8%)
Aontu 550 - 1.2%

Tremendous assemblage of anti-Brexit voters by the SDLP, who were supported by SF and the Greens but clearly drew on a very wide spectrum of voters - this is the only seat where the Alliance vote decreased.

Projected to an Assembly election, these votes would probably give the SDLP the seats held by the Greens and SF (who did not stand).

Foyle

Colum Eastwood (SDLP) 26,881 - 57.0% (+17.7%)
Elisha McCallion (SF) 9,771 - 20.7% (-19.0%)
Gary Middleton (DUP) 4,773 - 10.1% (-6.0%)
Aontu 2032 - 4.3%
PBP 1,332 - 2.8% (-0.2%)
Alliance 1,267 - 2.7% (+0.8%)
UUP 1,088 - 2.3%

Extraordinary to see SF vote almost halve compared to 2017. Local elections had indicated slippage here, but not this much. SDLP also clearly ate into Unionist vote.

Projected to an Assembly election, these votes would certainly give the SDLP a third Assembly seat, probably at the expense of SF (if DUP able to hang on).

Seats successfully defended by the DUP

Strangford

Jim Shannon (DUP) 17705 - 47.2% (-14.8%)
Kelly Armstrong (Alliance) 10634 - 28.4% (+13.7%)
Philip Smith (UUP) 4023 - 10.7% (-0.7%)
SDLP 1994 - 5.3% (-0.9%)
Con 1476 - 3.9% (+2.6%)
Gr 790 - 2.1% (+0.5%)
SF 555 - 1.5% (-0.9%)
UKIP 308 - 0.8% (-0.6%)

On the face of it, a straight shift of 5,000 votes from the DUP to Alliance (and 1000 to the Conservatives).

Projected to an Assembly election, these votes would certainly give Alliance the UUP’s Assembly seat.

East Londonderry

Gregory Campbell (DUP) 15,765 - 40.1% (-8.0%)
Cara Hunter (SDLP) 6,158 - 16.0% (+4.9%)
Dermot Nicholl (SF) 6,128 - 15.6% (-10.9%)
Chris McCaw (Alliance) 5,921 - 15.1% (+8.9%)
UUP 3,599 - 9.2% (+2.0%)
Aontu 1,731 - 4.4%

A three-way jostling for second place, with SDLP, SF and Alliance within 240 votes of each other. Looks again like DUP votes going mostly to Alliance, with SF defectors splitting fairly evenly between SDLP and Aontu.

Projected to an Assembly election, these votes would certainly give Alliance the seat held by Claire Sugden (but she did not stand).

East Belfast

Gavin Robinson (DUP) 20,874 - 49.0% (-7.0%)
Naomi Long (Alliance) 19,055 - 44.9% (+8.9%)
UUP 2,516 - 5.9% (+2.6%)

Alliance benefited somewhat from other parties not standing, but also (again) from some direct vote switches from the DUP. I think this is Alliance’s second highest ever vote share in a Westminster election (the highest being Stephen Farry’s total in North Down).

Projected to an Assembly election, these votes would certainly give the DUP the UUP’s seat.

East Antrim

Sammy Wilson (DUP) 16,871 - 45.3% (-12.1%)
Danny Donnelly (Alliance) 10,165 - 27.3% (+11.7%)
Steve Aiken (UUP) 5,475 - 15.0% (+3.0%)
SF 2,120 - 6.0% (-3.6%)
Cons 1,043 - 2.8% (nc)
SDLP 902 - 2.4% (-0.9%)
Green 685 - 1.8%

Looks like Alliance drawing votes directly from both DUP and SF here, more from DUP because there were more to draw from.

Projected to an Assembly election, these votes would certainly give Alliance one of the UUP’s Assembly seats.

South Antrim

Paul Girvan (DUP) 15,149 - 35.3% (-3.0%)
Danny Kinahan (UUP) 12,460 - 29.0% (-1.8%)
John Blair (Alliance) 8,190 - 19.1% (+12.0%)
Declan Kearney (SF) 4,887 - 11.4% (-6.7%)
SDLP 2,288 - 5.3% (-0.1%)

Again, Alliance making big gains, but unusually more from SF than from Unionists. One of only three seats where UUP have finished ahead of Alliance.

Projected to an Assembly election, these votes would probably give the UUP the SF seat, depending on SDLP and Alliance transfers.

Lagan Valley

Jeffrey Donaldson (DUP) 19,586 - 43.1% (-16.4%)
Sorcha Eastwood (Alliance) 13,087 - 28.8% (+17.7%)
Robbie Butler (UUP) 8,606 - 19.0% (+2.2%)
SDLP 1,758 - 3.9% (-3.7%)
SF 1,098 - 2.4% (-1.1%)
Cons 955 - 2.1% (+1.1%)
UKIP 315 - 0.7%

Again, large increase in Alliance vote that appears to have come mostly from DUP but also from the Nationalist parties.

Projected to an Assembly election, these votes would probably give Alliance a second seat at the expense of the SDLP.

Upper Bann

Carla Lockhart (DUP) 20,501 - 41.0% (-2.6%)
John O’Dowd (SF) 12,291 - 24.6% (-3.4%)
Eóin Tennyson (Alliance) 6,433 - 12.9% (+8.3%)
Doug Beattie (UUP) 6,197 - 12.4% (-3.0%)
SDLP 4,623 - 9.2% (+0.7%)

Carla Lockhart successfully defended the seat previously held by David Campbell. Again an Alliance increase which seems to have come from both sides.

Projected to an Assembly election, these votes would make the SDLP and probably also the UUP seats untenable, with likely winners SF or Alliance, and the DUP, respectively.

North Antrim

Ian Paisley (DUP) 20,860 - 47.4% (-11.5%)
Robin Swann (UUP) 8,139 - 18.5% (+11.3%)
Patricia O’Lynn (Alliance) 6,231 - 14.1% (+8.5%)
Cara McShane (SF) 5,632 - 12.8% (-3.5%)
SDLP 2,943 - 6.7% (+1.4%)
Ind 246 - 0.6%

The TUV, who got 7% in 2017, stood down here in favour of the DUP, but looking at those numbers it seems more likely that their votes favoured the UUP, with DUP votes also going to Alliance here as elsewhere. Another seat where the UUP did better than Alliance.

Projected to an Assembly election, these votes would certainly give Alliance the seat held by the TUV (but they did not stand).

Seats successfully defended by SF

West Tyrone

Órfhlaith Begley (SF) 16,544 - 40.2% (-10.6%)
Thomas Buchanan (DUP) 9,066 - 22.0% (-4.9%)
Daniel McCrossan (SDLP) 7,330 - 17.8% (+4.8%)
Alliance 3,979 - 9.7% (+7.4%)
UUP 2,774 - 6.7% (+1.6%)
Aontu 972 - 2.4%
Green 521 - 1.3% (+0.3%)

SF votes seem to have gone roughly half to SDLP and a quarter to each of Alliance and Aontu, with Alliance also picking up from the DUP.

Projected to an Assembly election, these votes would make the third SF seat untenable, with the DUP or possibly Alliance benefiting.

West Belfast

Paul Maskey (SF) 20,866 - 53.8% (-12.9%)
Gerry Carroll (PBP) 6,194 - 16.0% (+5.8%)
Frank McCoubrey (DUP) 5,220 - 13.5% (nc)
SDLP 2,985 - 7.7% (+0.7%)
Alliance 1,882 - 4.9% (+3.1%)
Aontu 1,635 - 4.2%

PBP and to a lesser extent Alliance picking up some votes from SF in what is still their strongest seat.

Projected to an Assembly election, these votes would make the fourth SF seat untenable, with the DUP the most likely beneficiary.

Mid Ulster

Francie Molloy (SF) 20,473 - 45.9% (-8.6%)
Keith Buchanan (DUP) 10,936 - 25.0% (-2.4%)
Denise Johnston (SDLP) 6,384 - 14.3% (+5.0%)
Alliance 3,526 - 7.9% (+5.6%)
UUP 2,611 - 5.9% (-0.6%)
Independent 690 - 1.5%

SF votes going slightly more to SDLP than Alliance, but Alliance also picking up from Unionists.

Projected to an Assembly election, uniquely among the 18 constituencies, these votes would probably recreate the status quo (3 SF, 1 DUP, 1 SDLP).

South Down

SF 16,137 - 32.4% (-8.0%)
SDLP 14,517 - 29.0% (-6.0%)
DUP 7,619 - 15.3% (-2.0%)
Alliance 6,916 - 13.9% (+10.3%)
UUP 3,307 - 6.6% (+2.7%)
Aontu 1,266 - 2.5%

Aontu eating a little into the Nationalist vote, but Alliance eating into it rather more, with the UUP picking up from the DUP.

Projected to an Assembly election, these votes would give Alliance a chance of picking up one of the SDLP seats.

Newry and Armagh

Mickey Brady (SF) 20,287 - 40.0% (-8.0%)
William Irwin (DUP) 11,000 - 21.7% (-2.9%)
Pete Byrne (SDLP) 9,449 - 18.6% (+1.7%)
Alliance 4,211 - 8.3% (+5.9%)
UUP 4,204 - 8.3% (nc)
Aontu 1,628 - 3.2%

SF votes going to Aontu, Alliance and the SDLP in that order, with Alliance also picking up from the DUP.

Projected to an Assembly election, these votes would make the third SF seat untenable, with Alliance or the UUP (or a very lucky second DUP candidate) benefiting.

Fermanagh and South Tyrone

Michelle Gildernew (SF) 21986 - 43.3% (-3.9%)
Tom Elliott (UUP) 21929 - 43.2% (-2.3%)
SDLP 3446 - 6.8% (+2.0%)
Alliance 2650 - 5.2% (+3.5%)
Ind 751 - 1.5%

A massive two-party squeeze normally means those in the middle losing votes, but here the opposite applied, with the SDLP gaining from SF and Alliance gaining from both SF and the UUP. In the end the squeeze was not quite enough for the UUP to regain the seat, their best shot of the day, and SF held it by a mere 57 votes.

Projected to an Assembly election, there is no DUP candidate so the UUP would win that seat; if the SDLP are lucky with Alliance transfers and SF balancing, they would gain one of SF’s three seats.

I will have to think about what this all means.



Picture taken late last night by Mark Devenport:

The next election due in Northern Ireland is an Assembly election scheduled for 2022; but I would not be at all surprised if it happened earlier.
Tags: election: uk: 2019, world: northern ireland
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