Nicholas (nwhyte) wrote,

This year’s Hugo ballot: Goodreads/LibraryThing stats

There’s a real surfeit of statistics for me this year, with not only the 2018 Hugo for Best Novel, but also the 1943 Retro Hugo for Best Novel, the 2018 Hugo for Best Related Work, and the 2018 World Science Fiction Society (WSFS) Award for Best Young Adult Book all providing grist to my mill.

What mill is this? I take the ballot and compare the various finalists on Goodreads and LibraryThing, both to see how many users on each system claim to have copies of each book, and to see how much they like them. This analysis has been of rather limited success in identifying winners, but I think it does indicate something about front-runners.

2018 Hugo for Best Novel
Goodreads LibraryThing
owners av rating owners av rating
The Collapsing Empire, John Scalzi 45295 4.09 525 3.93
The Stone Sky, N.K. Jemisin 42668 4.4 510 4.34
New York 2140, Kim Stanley Robinson 20592 3.6 359 3.72
Provenance, Ann Leckie 21310 3.87 304 3.91
Six Wakes, Mur Lafferty 20058 3.86 269 3.95
Raven Stratagem, Yoon Ha Lee 6824 4.22 141 4.26

In terms of ownership, it’s tight at the top between The Collapsing Empire and The Stone Sky; the latter however has higher reader ratings than the former, as does Raven Stratagem.

1943 Retro Hugo for Best Novel
Goodreads LibraryThing
owners av rating owners av rating
Beyond This Horizon, Robert A. Heinlein 5967 3.75 1529 3.36
Second Stage Lensmen, E.E. “Doc” Smith 3705 3.93 954 3.55
Islandia, Austen Tappan Wright 2310 4.33 403 4.21
The Uninvited, Dorothy Macardle 3020 4.08 115 4.06
Donovan’s Brain, Curt Siodmak 955 3.71 194 3.71
Darkness and the Light, Olaf Stapledon 74 3.7 23 3

The outlier here is Darkness and the Light, which has a far smaller base than the other five; perhaps Stapledon fans just got organised this year? Be that as it may, Beyond This Horizon is far ahead on ownership, and Islandia far ahead on reader ratings, so I imagine that the winner will be one of them. The Heinlein is much easier to get hold of.

2018 Hugo for Best Related Work
Goodreads LibraryThing
owners av rating owners av rating
No Time To Spare, Ursula Le Guin 7578 4.07 171 4.1
Crash Override, Zoe Quinn 3579 4.05 73 4.14
Luminscent Threads, Alexandra Pierce and Mimi Mondal 129 4.82 15 4
A Lit Fuse, Nat Segaloff 61 4.8 21 4
Iain M. Banks, Paul Kincaid 67 4.14 15 3.5
Sleeping With Monsters, Liz Bourke 69 4.08 2 -

A pretty clear front-runner here, though the data is so sparse that it may not be meaningful. Note also the exceptionally high Goodreads ratings (from an admittedly small base) for Luminscent Threads and A Lit Fuse.

2018 World Science Fiction Society (WSFS) Award for Best Young Adult Book
Goodreads LibraryThing
owners av rating owners av rating
La Belle Sauvage, Philip Pullman 88787 4.22 971 4.2
In Other Lands, Sarah Rees Brennan 15897 4.4 129 4.28
A Skinful of Shadows, Frances Hardinge 8512 4.13 110 4.31
Akata Warrior, Nnedi Okorafor 6828 4.3 121 4.27
The Art of Starving, Sam J. Miller 6194 3.74 57 3.9
Summer in Orcus, T. Kingfisher 1242 4.56 41 4.41

I have no insight into any of these books. I note only that La Belle Sauvage is way ahead on owners, and Summer in Orcus has much the highest ratings.

Anyway, that suppies a little numerical context for the vote.
Tags: goodreads/librarything stats, hugos 2018, retro hugos 1943

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