The Arthur C. Clarke Award have released their full submission list, and as usual I have run it through the Goodreads and LibaryThing catalogues, checking the number of owners on each system and the average rating. The list below is raked by geometric average of the number of owners on the two systems. I have bolded the top quartile of each column (which for both ratings columns neatly matches those books which got on averge 4 or more points out of 5).

What jumps out at me is that three books are in the top quarter of all four metrics - The Stone Sky by N.K. Jemisin, The Boy on the Bridge by M.R. Carey and City of Miracles by Robert Jackson Bennett. I wouldn't be surprised to see those three at least on the Clarke shortlist. (The Stone Sky and City of Miracles both have pretty high reader ratings as well.) Lower down the list, another book with very good ratings on both systems is Adrian Tchaikovsky's Dogs of War.

One other metric that has served me well in the past is to look at books with comparatively high ratios of LibraryThing owners (whose tastes seem more similar to the Clarke judges than Goodreads users). Of those in the top quartiles by ownership of both lists, The Last Days of New Paris by China Mieville and Walkaway by Cory Doctorow are notably strong in that regard, even though their reader ratings are not as strong as some others.

So that's my back-of-envelope prediction of what will be on the Clarke shortlist this year, with no consideration of literary merit (on my part) whatsoever: The Stone Sky, The Boy on the Bridge, City of Miracles, Dogs of War, The Last Days of New Paris and Walkaway.

	Goodreads		LibraryThing
	owners	av rating	owners	av rating
Artemis — Andy Weir	222049	3.68	1009	3.54
Exit West — Mohsin Hamid	143419	3.83	979	3.92
American War — Omar El Akkad	65902	3.84	530	3.89
Borne — Jeff VanderMeer	47468	3.91	499	3.89
The Collapsing Empire — John Scalzi (Tor)	44527	4.09	508	3.93
How to Stop Time — Matt Haig	67196	4.03	309	3.88
The Stone Sky — N.K. Jemisin	41459	4.4	481	4.34
All Our Wrong Todays — Elan Mastai	50488	3.8	382	3.62
Too Like the Lightning — Ada Palmer	28170	3.87	483	3.78
The Boy on the Bridge — M.R. Carey	40535	4.02	251	4.01
Gilded Cage — Vic James	30302	3.66	257	3.73
Strange Weather — Joe Hill	27222	3.95	262	4.11
New York 2140 — Kim Stanley Robinson	20539	3.61	343	3.72
Provenance — Ann Leckie	20782	3.87	291	3.91
Spoonbenders — Daryl Gregory	23247	3.98	183	4
The Last Days of New Paris — China Mieville	11497	3.59	340	3.69
Walkaway — Cory Doctorow	12717	3.78	273	3.67
The Stars are Legion — Kameron Hurley	17738	3.71	192	3.57
Autonomous — Annalee Newitz	16658	3.63	175	3.76
The Regional Office is Under Attack! — Manuel Gonzales	14333	3.25	197	3.32
You Too Can Have a Body Like Mine — Alexandra Kleeman	14757	3.24	159	3.82
The Wanderers — Meg Howrey	12819	3.55	183	3.62
City of Miracles — Robert Jackson Bennett	12533	4.45	153	4.32
Gather the Daughters — Jennie Melamed	15889	3.67	114	3.48
Into the Drowning Deep — Mira Grant	11253	4.12	120	4
Nyxia — Scott Reintgen	12492	4.1	96	4.09
The Delirium Brief — Charles Stross	6565	4.28	153	3.97
The End We Start From — Megan Hunter	9931	3.45	98	3.44
Spaceman of Bohemia — Jaroslav Kalfar	9218	3.88	104	4.1
Raven Stratagem — Yoon Ha Lee	6651	4.22	137	4.24
The Space Between the Stars — Anne Corlett	8747	3.4	94	3.52
Gnomon — Nick Harkaway	6091	3.96	128	3.96
The End of the Day — Claire North	7172	3.35	105	3.5
Empire Games — Charles Stross	5401	4.05	135	3.6
Sea of Rust — C. Robert Cargill	7716	4.15	94	4.24
Generation One — Pittacus Lore	9367	4.27	55	2.5
Cold Welcome — Elizabeth Moon	4037	3.99	107	3.78
The Massacre of Mankind — Stephen Baxter	3824	3.35	111	3.36
Hold Back the Stars — Katie Khan	8890	3.55	47	3.21
The Readymade Thief — Augustus Rose	5875	3.41	68	3.61
Black Wave — Michelle Tea	4902	3.82	73	3.94
Blackwing — Ed McDonald	6443	4.2	55	4.45
Tell Me How This Ends Well — David Samuel Levinson	2622	3.52	130	3.43
Luna: Wolf Moon — Ian McDonald	3937	3.97	82	3.55
Broken River — J. Robert Lennon	4731	3.53	60	3.19
Clade — James Bradley	3782	3.71	70	4
Rotherweird — Andrew Caldecott	4058	3.81	65	3.31
Anna — Niccolo Ammaniti	3487	3.34	70	3.5
Noumenon — Marina Lostetter	3899	3.77	51	3.94
A Man of Shadows — Jeff Noon	3499	3.47	54	3.64
The Wrong Stars — Tim Pratt	2944	3.89	58	4.06
Infinity Engine — Neal Asher	2808	4.42	50	3.77
Hunger Makes the Wolf — Alex Wells	1629	4.01	39	3.5
The Rift — Nina Allan	1660	3.39	38	3.27
An Oath of Dogs — Wendy N. Wagner	1546	3.66	36	3.83
H(a)ppy — Nicola Barker	1326	3.45	41	3.23
Places in the Darkness — Chris Brookmyre	1681	3.82	31	3.9
Shattered Minds — Laura Lam	2441	3.87	21	4.1
The Transition — Luke Kennard	1475	3.54	31	3.5
The Uploaded — Ferrett Steinmetz	1346	3.76	28	3.25
Austral — Paul McAuley	1045	3.55	33	4
Defender — G.X. Todd	1309	4.01	23	4.5
The Real-Town Murders — Adam Roberts	872	3.74	24	3.58
Dogs of War — Adrian Tchaikovsky	966	4.39	16	4.5
Dreams Before the Start of Time — Anne Charnock	773	3.51	19	3.38
Netherspace — Andrew Lane and Nigel Foster	907	3.65	14	3
Immortal Architects — Paige Orwin	402	4	26	3.38
A Perfect Machine — Brett Savory	773	3.03	11	4.75
Sungrazer — Jay Posey	796	3.95	10	3.67
From Darkest Skies — Sam Peters	594	3.64	12	4
Broadcast — Liam Brown	511	3.71	13	4
Kokoro — Keith Yatsuhashi	469	3.39	14	-
The White City — Roma Tearne	802	3.32	8	3.33
The Unity Game — Leonora Meriel	688	4.22	7	-
The Growing Season — Helen Sedgwick	620	3.86	7	4
Ubo — Steve Rasnic Tem	442	3.48	9	-
The Last Dog on Earth — Adrian J. Walker	455	4.11	8	4.5
America City — Chris Beckett	303	3.88	12	3.88
Sweet Dreams — Tricia Sullivan	417	3.29	8	-
The Weight of the World — Tom Toner	446	3.58	7	4.5
The Rebellion's Last Traitor — Nik Korpon	506	3.56	6	2.5
Playing with Death — Simon Scarrow and Lee Francis	383	3.74	5	-
The Switch — Justina Robson	266	3.72	6	4
The Eternity War — Jamie Sawyer	218	4.71	7	3.75
Nanoshock — K. C. Alexander	181	4.24	8	3.75
Xeelee: Vengeance — Stephen Baxter	181	3.83	7	-
Euphoria — Heinz Helle	305	3.46	4	-
The Idiot Gods — David Zindell	387	3.59	3	-
Anachronist — Andrew Hastie	360	4.39	3	-
The Ion Raider — Ian Whates	43	4.42	22	3.72
Children of the Divide — Patrick S. Tomlinson	113	3.84	6	3.5
Our Memory Like Dust — Gavin Chait	132	3.79	5	-
Invasion — P.P. Corcoran	600	4.5	1	-
Exodus — Alex Lamb	138	3.76	4	2.5
Condition Book One — Alec Birri	176	3.63	3	3
The Book of Air — Joe Treasure	86	3.56	5	3
Iron Gods — Andrew Bannister	68	3.74	6	-
Water & Glass — Abi Curtis	297	3.81	1	5
Sealed — Naomi Booth	145	4.2	2	-
Condition Book Two — Alec Birri	48	3.81	2	-
Some Assembly Required — Michael Strelow	46	4.23	2	2.5
Citizen Zero — Mark Cantrell	34	4.11	1	-
Condition Book Three — Alec Birri	27	2.64	1	-
Memory and Straw — Angus Peter Campbell	18	3.4	1	-
The Wages of Sin — Zoe Sumra	4	4	1	-
Elysium's Shadow — Matthew Munson	2	4	0	-
Iteration — Liz Monument	1	3	0	-
Charlie Ellis and the Day Trip to Mars — Paul Sutton	0	-	0	-