What jumps out at me is that three books are in the top quarter of all four metrics - The Stone Sky by N.K. Jemisin, The Boy on the Bridge by M.R. Carey and City of Miracles by Robert Jackson Bennett. I wouldn't be surprised to see those three at least on the Clarke shortlist. (The Stone Sky and City of Miracles both have pretty high reader ratings as well.) Lower down the list, another book with very good ratings on both systems is Adrian Tchaikovsky's Dogs of War.
One other metric that has served me well in the past is to look at books with comparatively high ratios of LibraryThing owners (whose tastes seem more similar to the Clarke judges than Goodreads users). Of those in the top quartiles by ownership of both lists, The Last Days of New Paris by China Mieville and Walkaway by Cory Doctorow are notably strong in that regard, even though their reader ratings are not as strong as some others.
So that's my back-of-envelope prediction of what will be on the Clarke shortlist this year, with no consideration of literary merit (on my part) whatsoever: The Stone Sky, The Boy on the Bridge, City of Miracles, Dogs of War, The Last Days of New Paris and Walkaway.
| Goodreads | LibraryThing | |||
| owners | av rating | owners | av rating | |
| Artemis — Andy Weir | 222049 | 3.68 | 1009 | 3.54 |
| Exit West — Mohsin Hamid | 143419 | 3.83 | 979 | 3.92 |
| American War — Omar El Akkad | 65902 | 3.84 | 530 | 3.89 |
| Borne — Jeff VanderMeer | 47468 | 3.91 | 499 | 3.89 |
| The Collapsing Empire — John Scalzi (Tor) | 44527 | 4.09 | 508 | 3.93 |
| How to Stop Time — Matt Haig | 67196 | 4.03 | 309 | 3.88 |
| The Stone Sky — N.K. Jemisin | 41459 | 4.4 | 481 | 4.34 |
| All Our Wrong Todays — Elan Mastai | 50488 | 3.8 | 382 | 3.62 |
| Too Like the Lightning — Ada Palmer | 28170 | 3.87 | 483 | 3.78 |
| The Boy on the Bridge — M.R. Carey | 40535 | 4.02 | 251 | 4.01 |
| Gilded Cage — Vic James | 30302 | 3.66 | 257 | 3.73 |
| Strange Weather — Joe Hill | 27222 | 3.95 | 262 | 4.11 |
| New York 2140 — Kim Stanley Robinson | 20539 | 3.61 | 343 | 3.72 |
| Provenance — Ann Leckie | 20782 | 3.87 | 291 | 3.91 |
| Spoonbenders — Daryl Gregory | 23247 | 3.98 | 183 | 4 |
| The Last Days of New Paris — China Mieville | 11497 | 3.59 | 340 | 3.69 |
| Walkaway — Cory Doctorow | 12717 | 3.78 | 273 | 3.67 |
| The Stars are Legion — Kameron Hurley | 17738 | 3.71 | 192 | 3.57 |
| Autonomous — Annalee Newitz | 16658 | 3.63 | 175 | 3.76 |
| The Regional Office is Under Attack! — Manuel Gonzales | 14333 | 3.25 | 197 | 3.32 |
| You Too Can Have a Body Like Mine — Alexandra Kleeman | 14757 | 3.24 | 159 | 3.82 |
| The Wanderers — Meg Howrey | 12819 | 3.55 | 183 | 3.62 |
| City of Miracles — Robert Jackson Bennett | 12533 | 4.45 | 153 | 4.32 |
| Gather the Daughters — Jennie Melamed | 15889 | 3.67 | 114 | 3.48 |
| Into the Drowning Deep — Mira Grant | 11253 | 4.12 | 120 | 4 |
| Nyxia — Scott Reintgen | 12492 | 4.1 | 96 | 4.09 |
| The Delirium Brief — Charles Stross | 6565 | 4.28 | 153 | 3.97 |
| The End We Start From — Megan Hunter | 9931 | 3.45 | 98 | 3.44 |
| Spaceman of Bohemia — Jaroslav Kalfar | 9218 | 3.88 | 104 | 4.1 |
| Raven Stratagem — Yoon Ha Lee | 6651 | 4.22 | 137 | 4.24 |
| The Space Between the Stars — Anne Corlett | 8747 | 3.4 | 94 | 3.52 |
| Gnomon — Nick Harkaway | 6091 | 3.96 | 128 | 3.96 |
| The End of the Day — Claire North | 7172 | 3.35 | 105 | 3.5 |
| Empire Games — Charles Stross | 5401 | 4.05 | 135 | 3.6 |
| Sea of Rust — C. Robert Cargill | 7716 | 4.15 | 94 | 4.24 |
| Generation One — Pittacus Lore | 9367 | 4.27 | 55 | 2.5 |
| Cold Welcome — Elizabeth Moon | 4037 | 3.99 | 107 | 3.78 |
| The Massacre of Mankind — Stephen Baxter | 3824 | 3.35 | 111 | 3.36 |
| Hold Back the Stars — Katie Khan | 8890 | 3.55 | 47 | 3.21 |
| The Readymade Thief — Augustus Rose | 5875 | 3.41 | 68 | 3.61 |
| Black Wave — Michelle Tea | 4902 | 3.82 | 73 | 3.94 |
| Blackwing — Ed McDonald | 6443 | 4.2 | 55 | 4.45 |
| Tell Me How This Ends Well — David Samuel Levinson | 2622 | 3.52 | 130 | 3.43 |
| Luna: Wolf Moon — Ian McDonald | 3937 | 3.97 | 82 | 3.55 |
| Broken River — J. Robert Lennon | 4731 | 3.53 | 60 | 3.19 |
| Clade — James Bradley | 3782 | 3.71 | 70 | 4 |
| Rotherweird — Andrew Caldecott | 4058 | 3.81 | 65 | 3.31 |
| Anna — Niccolo Ammaniti | 3487 | 3.34 | 70 | 3.5 |
| Noumenon — Marina Lostetter | 3899 | 3.77 | 51 | 3.94 |
| A Man of Shadows — Jeff Noon | 3499 | 3.47 | 54 | 3.64 |
| The Wrong Stars — Tim Pratt | 2944 | 3.89 | 58 | 4.06 |
| Infinity Engine — Neal Asher | 2808 | 4.42 | 50 | 3.77 |
| Hunger Makes the Wolf — Alex Wells | 1629 | 4.01 | 39 | 3.5 |
| The Rift — Nina Allan | 1660 | 3.39 | 38 | 3.27 |
| An Oath of Dogs — Wendy N. Wagner | 1546 | 3.66 | 36 | 3.83 |
| H(a)ppy — Nicola Barker | 1326 | 3.45 | 41 | 3.23 |
| Places in the Darkness — Chris Brookmyre | 1681 | 3.82 | 31 | 3.9 |
| Shattered Minds — Laura Lam | 2441 | 3.87 | 21 | 4.1 |
| The Transition — Luke Kennard | 1475 | 3.54 | 31 | 3.5 |
| The Uploaded — Ferrett Steinmetz | 1346 | 3.76 | 28 | 3.25 |
| Austral — Paul McAuley | 1045 | 3.55 | 33 | 4 |
| Defender — G.X. Todd | 1309 | 4.01 | 23 | 4.5 |
| The Real-Town Murders — Adam Roberts | 872 | 3.74 | 24 | 3.58 |
| Dogs of War — Adrian Tchaikovsky | 966 | 4.39 | 16 | 4.5 |
| Dreams Before the Start of Time — Anne Charnock | 773 | 3.51 | 19 | 3.38 |
| Netherspace — Andrew Lane and Nigel Foster | 907 | 3.65 | 14 | 3 |
| Immortal Architects — Paige Orwin | 402 | 4 | 26 | 3.38 |
| A Perfect Machine — Brett Savory | 773 | 3.03 | 11 | 4.75 |
| Sungrazer — Jay Posey | 796 | 3.95 | 10 | 3.67 |
| From Darkest Skies — Sam Peters | 594 | 3.64 | 12 | 4 |
| Broadcast — Liam Brown | 511 | 3.71 | 13 | 4 |
| Kokoro — Keith Yatsuhashi | 469 | 3.39 | 14 | - |
| The White City — Roma Tearne | 802 | 3.32 | 8 | 3.33 |
| The Unity Game — Leonora Meriel | 688 | 4.22 | 7 | - |
| The Growing Season — Helen Sedgwick | 620 | 3.86 | 7 | 4 |
| Ubo — Steve Rasnic Tem | 442 | 3.48 | 9 | - |
| The Last Dog on Earth — Adrian J. Walker | 455 | 4.11 | 8 | 4.5 |
| America City — Chris Beckett | 303 | 3.88 | 12 | 3.88 |
| Sweet Dreams — Tricia Sullivan | 417 | 3.29 | 8 | - |
| The Weight of the World — Tom Toner | 446 | 3.58 | 7 | 4.5 |
| The Rebellion's Last Traitor — Nik Korpon | 506 | 3.56 | 6 | 2.5 |
| Playing with Death — Simon Scarrow and Lee Francis | 383 | 3.74 | 5 | - |
| The Switch — Justina Robson | 266 | 3.72 | 6 | 4 |
| The Eternity War — Jamie Sawyer | 218 | 4.71 | 7 | 3.75 |
| Nanoshock — K. C. Alexander | 181 | 4.24 | 8 | 3.75 |
| Xeelee: Vengeance — Stephen Baxter | 181 | 3.83 | 7 | - |
| Euphoria — Heinz Helle | 305 | 3.46 | 4 | - |
| The Idiot Gods — David Zindell | 387 | 3.59 | 3 | - |
| Anachronist — Andrew Hastie | 360 | 4.39 | 3 | - |
| The Ion Raider — Ian Whates | 43 | 4.42 | 22 | 3.72 |
| Children of the Divide — Patrick S. Tomlinson | 113 | 3.84 | 6 | 3.5 |
| Our Memory Like Dust — Gavin Chait | 132 | 3.79 | 5 | - |
| Invasion — P.P. Corcoran | 600 | 4.5 | 1 | - |
| Exodus — Alex Lamb | 138 | 3.76 | 4 | 2.5 |
| Condition Book One — Alec Birri | 176 | 3.63 | 3 | 3 |
| The Book of Air — Joe Treasure | 86 | 3.56 | 5 | 3 |
| Iron Gods — Andrew Bannister | 68 | 3.74 | 6 | - |
| Water & Glass — Abi Curtis | 297 | 3.81 | 1 | 5 |
| Sealed — Naomi Booth | 145 | 4.2 | 2 | - |
| Condition Book Two — Alec Birri | 48 | 3.81 | 2 | - |
| Some Assembly Required — Michael Strelow | 46 | 4.23 | 2 | 2.5 |
| Citizen Zero — Mark Cantrell | 34 | 4.11 | 1 | - |
| Condition Book Three — Alec Birri | 27 | 2.64 | 1 | - |
| Memory and Straw — Angus Peter Campbell | 18 | 3.4 | 1 | - |
| The Wages of Sin — Zoe Sumra | 4 | 4 | 1 | - |
| Elysium's Shadow — Matthew Munson | 2 | 4 | 0 | - |
| Iteration — Liz Monument | 1 | 3 | 0 | - |
| Charlie Ellis and the Day Trip to Mars — Paul Sutton | 0 | - | 0 | - |
