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The Arthur C. Clarke Award have released their full submission list, and as usual I have run it through the Goodreads and LibaryThing catalogues, checking the number of owners on each system and the average rating. The list below is raked by geometric average of the number of owners on the two systems. I have bolded the top quartile of each column (which for both ratings columns neatly matches those books which got on averge 4 or more points out of 5).

What jumps out at me is that three books are in the top quarter of all four metrics - The Stone Sky by N.K. Jemisin, The Boy on the Bridge by M.R. Carey and City of Miracles by Robert Jackson Bennett. I wouldn't be surprised to see those three at least on the Clarke shortlist. (The Stone Sky and City of Miracles both have pretty high reader ratings as well.) Lower down the list, another book with very good ratings on both systems is Adrian Tchaikovsky's Dogs of War.

One other metric that has served me well in the past is to look at books with comparatively high ratios of LibraryThing owners (whose tastes seem more similar to the Clarke judges than Goodreads users). Of those in the top quartiles by ownership of both lists, The Last Days of New Paris by China Mieville and Walkaway by Cory Doctorow are notably strong in that regard, even though their reader ratings are not as strong as some others.

So that's my back-of-envelope prediction of what will be on the Clarke shortlist this year, with no consideration of literary merit (on my part) whatsoever: The Stone Sky, The Boy on the Bridge, City of Miracles, Dogs of War, The Last Days of New Paris and Walkaway.

Goodreads LibraryThing
owners av rating owners av rating
Artemis — Andy Weir 222049 3.68 1009 3.54
Exit West — Mohsin Hamid 143419 3.83 979 3.92
American War — Omar El Akkad 65902 3.84 530 3.89
Borne — Jeff VanderMeer 47468 3.91 499 3.89
The Collapsing Empire — John Scalzi (Tor) 44527 4.09 508 3.93
How to Stop Time — Matt Haig 67196 4.03 309 3.88
The Stone Sky — N.K. Jemisin 41459 4.4 481 4.34
All Our Wrong Todays — Elan Mastai 50488 3.8 382 3.62
Too Like the Lightning — Ada Palmer 28170 3.87 483 3.78
The Boy on the Bridge — M.R. Carey 40535 4.02 251 4.01
Gilded Cage — Vic James 30302 3.66 257 3.73
Strange Weather — Joe Hill 27222 3.95 262 4.11
New York 2140 — Kim Stanley Robinson 20539 3.61 343 3.72
Provenance — Ann Leckie 20782 3.87 291 3.91
Spoonbenders — Daryl Gregory 23247 3.98 183 4
The Last Days of New Paris — China Mieville 11497 3.59 340 3.69
Walkaway — Cory Doctorow 12717 3.78 273 3.67
The Stars are Legion — Kameron Hurley 17738 3.71 192 3.57
Autonomous — Annalee Newitz 16658 3.63 175 3.76
The Regional Office is Under Attack! — Manuel Gonzales 14333 3.25 197 3.32
You Too Can Have a Body Like Mine — Alexandra Kleeman 14757 3.24 159 3.82
The Wanderers — Meg Howrey 12819 3.55 183 3.62
City of Miracles — Robert Jackson Bennett 12533 4.45 153 4.32
Gather the Daughters — Jennie Melamed 15889 3.67 114 3.48
Into the Drowning Deep — Mira Grant 11253 4.12 120 4
Nyxia — Scott Reintgen 12492 4.1 96 4.09
The Delirium Brief — Charles Stross 6565 4.28 153 3.97
The End We Start From — Megan Hunter 9931 3.45 98 3.44
Spaceman of Bohemia — Jaroslav Kalfar 9218 3.88 104 4.1
Raven Stratagem — Yoon Ha Lee 6651 4.22 137 4.24
The Space Between the Stars — Anne Corlett 8747 3.4 94 3.52
Gnomon — Nick Harkaway 6091 3.96 128 3.96
The End of the Day — Claire North 7172 3.35 105 3.5
Empire Games — Charles Stross 5401 4.05 135 3.6
Sea of Rust — C. Robert Cargill 7716 4.15 94 4.24
Generation One — Pittacus Lore 9367 4.27 55 2.5
Cold Welcome — Elizabeth Moon 4037 3.99 107 3.78
The Massacre of Mankind — Stephen Baxter 3824 3.35 111 3.36
Hold Back the Stars — Katie Khan 8890 3.55 47 3.21
The Readymade Thief — Augustus Rose 5875 3.41 68 3.61
Black Wave — Michelle Tea 4902 3.82 73 3.94
Blackwing — Ed McDonald 6443 4.2 55 4.45
Tell Me How This Ends Well — David Samuel Levinson 2622 3.52 130 3.43
Luna: Wolf Moon — Ian McDonald 3937 3.97 82 3.55
Broken River — J. Robert Lennon 4731 3.53 60 3.19
Clade — James Bradley 3782 3.71 70 4
Rotherweird — Andrew Caldecott 4058 3.81 65 3.31
Anna — Niccolo Ammaniti 3487 3.34 70 3.5
Noumenon — Marina Lostetter 3899 3.77 51 3.94
A Man of Shadows — Jeff Noon 3499 3.47 54 3.64
The Wrong Stars — Tim Pratt 2944 3.89 58 4.06
Infinity Engine — Neal Asher 2808 4.42 50 3.77
Hunger Makes the Wolf — Alex Wells 1629 4.01 39 3.5
The Rift — Nina Allan 1660 3.39 38 3.27
An Oath of Dogs — Wendy N. Wagner 1546 3.66 36 3.83
H(a)ppy — Nicola Barker 1326 3.45 41 3.23
Places in the Darkness — Chris Brookmyre 1681 3.82 31 3.9
Shattered Minds — Laura Lam 2441 3.87 21 4.1
The Transition — Luke Kennard 1475 3.54 31 3.5
The Uploaded — Ferrett Steinmetz 1346 3.76 28 3.25
Austral — Paul McAuley 1045 3.55 33 4
Defender — G.X. Todd 1309 4.01 23 4.5
The Real-Town Murders — Adam Roberts 872 3.74 24 3.58
Dogs of War — Adrian Tchaikovsky 966 4.39 16 4.5
Dreams Before the Start of Time — Anne Charnock 773 3.51 19 3.38
Netherspace — Andrew Lane and Nigel Foster 907 3.65 14 3
Immortal Architects — Paige Orwin 402 4 26 3.38
A Perfect Machine — Brett Savory 773 3.03 11 4.75
Sungrazer — Jay Posey 796 3.95 10 3.67
From Darkest Skies — Sam Peters 594 3.64 12 4
Broadcast — Liam Brown 511 3.71 13 4
Kokoro — Keith Yatsuhashi 469 3.39 14 -
The White City — Roma Tearne 802 3.32 8 3.33
The Unity Game — Leonora Meriel 688 4.22 7 -
The Growing Season — Helen Sedgwick 620 3.86 7 4
Ubo — Steve Rasnic Tem 442 3.48 9 -
The Last Dog on Earth — Adrian J. Walker 455 4.11 8 4.5
America City — Chris Beckett 303 3.88 12 3.88
Sweet Dreams — Tricia Sullivan 417 3.29 8 -
The Weight of the World — Tom Toner 446 3.58 7 4.5
The Rebellion's Last Traitor — Nik Korpon 506 3.56 6 2.5
Playing with Death — Simon Scarrow and Lee Francis 383 3.74 5 -
The Switch — Justina Robson 266 3.72 6 4
The Eternity War — Jamie Sawyer 218 4.71 7 3.75
Nanoshock — K. C. Alexander 181 4.24 8 3.75
Xeelee: Vengeance — Stephen Baxter 181 3.83 7 -
Euphoria — Heinz Helle 305 3.46 4 -
The Idiot Gods — David Zindell 387 3.59 3 -
Anachronist — Andrew Hastie 360 4.39 3 -
The Ion Raider — Ian Whates 43 4.42 22 3.72
Children of the Divide — Patrick S. Tomlinson 113 3.84 6 3.5
Our Memory Like Dust — Gavin Chait 132 3.79 5 -
Invasion — P.P. Corcoran 600 4.5 1 -
Exodus — Alex Lamb 138 3.76 4 2.5
Condition Book One — Alec Birri 176 3.63 3 3
The Book of Air — Joe Treasure 86 3.56 5 3
Iron Gods — Andrew Bannister 68 3.74 6 -
Water & Glass — Abi Curtis 297 3.81 1 5
Sealed — Naomi Booth 145 4.2 2 -
Condition Book Two — Alec Birri 48 3.81 2 -
Some Assembly Required — Michael Strelow 46 4.23 2 2.5
Citizen Zero — Mark Cantrell 34 4.11 1 -
Condition Book Three — Alec Birri 27 2.64 1 -
Memory and Straw — Angus Peter Campbell 18 3.4 1 -
The Wages of Sin — Zoe Sumra 4 4 1 -
Elysium's Shadow — Matthew Munson 2 4 0 -
Iteration — Liz Monument 1 3 0 -
Charlie Ellis and the Day Trip to Mars — Paul Sutton 0 - 0 -


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