Nicholas (nwhyte) wrote,

#AE17 East Belfast: DUP third seat most likely to go

East Belfast elected four Unionists in 2016 with 56.7% of first preferences, and Alliance got the remaining two starting with 28.7%. The Nationalist vote was 2.9%.

2016 result
DUP 13,643 (36.7%, -7.3%) 3 seats
UUP 4,142 (11.1%, +1.4%) 1 seat
PUP 1,772 (4.8%, +0.2%)
TUV 887 (2.4%, +0.2%)
UKIP 631 (1.7%)
Cons 477 (1.3%)

Alliance 10,659 (28.7%, +2.4%) 2 seats
Green 2,183 (5.9%, +4.1%)
Ind 1,099 (3.0%)
CCLA 517 (1.4%)
NILRC 78 (0.2%)

SF 946 (2.5%, -0.7%)
SDLP 141 (0.4%, -0.4%)
2017 candidates
@Joanne Bunting (DUP)
David Douglas (DUP)
@Robin Newton (DUP)
@Andy Allen (UUP)
Andrew Girvin (TUV)
John Kyle (PUP)
Sheila Bodel (Cons)

@Naomi Long (Alliance)
@Chris Lyttle (Alliance)
Georgina Milne (Green)
Courtney Robinson (CCLA)
Jordy McKeag (Independent)

Séamus de Faoite (SDLP)
Mairéad O'Donnell (SF)

Five of the six incumbents are standing for re-election, with one DUP retirement. The DUP are defending three seats with 2.2 quotas; Alliance are defending two with 1.7 quotas; and the UUP one with 0.7 of a quota. In 2016 there were 3.4 Unionist quotas, and 0.5 of a quota of Nationalist votes. It therefore looks like the third DUP seat is the most vulnerable; the Alliance position will be strengthened by Nationalist and other transfers. Having said that, the Greens performed relatively well here in 2016 and may be a force to watch in the future.

Tags: election: ni: 2017
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