Nicholas (nwhyte) wrote,

#AE17 South Antrim: DUP likely to lose a seat

South Antrim unites Antrim town with the western fringes of Newtownabbey, running to the northen and northeastern shores of Lough Neagh. Unionists won four seats here in 2016 with 65.3% of the vote; Nationalists won one with 22.8%; and Alliance held theirs with 8.9%.

2016 result
DUP 13,188 (37.5%, -0.8%) 3 seats
UUP 7,792 (22.2%, +4.4%) 1 seat
TUV 1318 (3.8%, +0.4%)
UKIP 574 (1.6%)
Conservatives 72 (0.2%)

Alliance 3119 (8.9%, -5.6%) 1 seat
Green 589 (1.7%)
Independent 483 (1.4%)

Sinn Féin 4,632 (13.2%, -1.3%) 1 seat
SDLP 3,366 (9.6%, -1.0%)
2017 candidates
@Pam Cameron (DUP)
@Trevor Clarke (DUP)
@Paul Girvan (DUP)
@Stephen Aiken (UUP)
Adrian Cochrane-Watson (UUP)
Richard Cairns (TUV)
Mark Logan (Cons)

@David Ford (Alliance)
Eleanor Bailey (Green)
Ivana Antova (PBPA)
David McMaster (Ind)

Roisin Lynch (SDLP)
@Declan Kearney (Sinn Féin)

All six incumbents are standing for re-election. The DUP are defending three seats with 2.3 quotas; the UUP are defending their seat with 1.3 quotas. SF and Alliance are on 0.8 and 0.5 of a quota respectively. In 2016 there were 3.8 Unionist quotas and 1.4 Nationalist quotas.

Alliance on paper look like they have the toughest defence, but in practice they need only stay in the race long enough to benefit from spare Nationalist transfers. Their position is nonetheless vulnerable to even a small drop in support.

Sinn Fein's seat looks pretty safe, and the UUP are surely certain to hold theirs, so the most vulnerable on the Unionist side is surely the third DUP seat - 2.3 quotas is a bad position to defend three seats from (in North Down, where they are starting with a higher vote share, they are not even trying). Also in line with the (very limited) information I've been getting from the doorsteps, I'm calling this as a likely DUP loss.

Tags: election: ni: 2017

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