| 2016 result DUP 7,393 (18.1%, +1.4%) 1 seat UUP 4,862 (11.9%, +1.6%) 1 seat TUV 1,877 (4.6%, -0.3%) UKIP 256 (0.6%) Alliance 471 (1.2%, +0.3%) Green 349 (0.9%) Workers' Party 316 (0.8%) Sinn Féin 19,015 (46.7%, -2.5%) 3 seats SDLP 6,209 (15.2%, +0.5%) 1 seat | 2017 candidates @Keith Buchanan (DUP) @Sandra Overend (UUP) Hannah Loughrin (TUV) Fay Watson (Alliance) Stefan Taylor (Green) Hugh Scullion (WP) Hugh McCloy (Ind) @Patsy McGlone (SDLP) @Linda Dillon (SF) @Ian Milne (SF) @Michelle O'Neill (SF) |
All six incumbent MLAs are seeking re-election. SF are defending three seats with 2.8 quotas; the DUP are defending one with 1.1 quotas; the SDLP and UUP are defending theirs respectively with 0.9 and 0.7 of a quota. In 2016 there were 2.1 Unionist quotas and 3.7 Nationalist quotas.
The two Unionist seats look safe enough (the UUP perhaps a little more precarious), so the seat lost is more likely to be a Nationalist one. SF have two safe, but have a more difficult challenge for the third; it will take mathematically precise balancing, which is very difficult to pull off in a constituency where the new leader may prove a vote magnet, so my gut feeling is that they are more likely to lose out and the SDLP will probably survive here.