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We're now at the halfway point between my previous survey of bloggers' voting intentions for the Hugo fiction categories, and the actual deadline for votes on 31 July. Quite a lot more prople have come forward to say how they plan to vote, and it shifts the balance in a couple of cases. Apologies to anyone who I have missed; at this rate, I expect that I will do a final roundup in two weeks, though I can't promise that it will be before the voting deadline has passed.

Again, I want to emphasise that this is a small self-selecting sample of voters. When I first carried out a survey like this in 2011, it did not flag any of the eventual winners as leading among bloggers. In 2013, I did not find a single blogger who declared that they had voted for the winner, Redshirts. I did better last year, with the winners either top or second in each of the categories surveyed.

The headline for today is that The Goblin Emperor is a nose ahead of of The Three Body Problem for Best Novel among those I have surveyed, with Ancillary Sword so close behind that it would be very foolish to call the outcome on the basis of these numbers. (Chaos Horizon thinks the relative probabilities of these three winning are in the opposite oreder to my survey; they may well be right.) In the short fiction categories, No Award has extended its lead in all three cases to the point where I feel comfortable describing it as the front-runner.

Best Novel: I've added another 15 bloggers and blog comments to the previous 17, for a total of 32, and the result is to boost The Goblin Emperor into first place, with The Three-Body Problem very close behind and Ancillary Sword still within spitting distance. I also record the first vote I have found for No Award in this category. There is still nobody claiming that they will vote for The Dark Between the Stars. I repeat my caveat that Skin Game's supporters may not be fervent bloggers. Those in my previous survey are in blue; new additions to the list should be in red.

The Goblin Emperor (10½): Ian Mond, Tim Atkinson, Reading SFF, Rachel Neumeier, maybe Cat Faber; Jon F. Zeigler, Admiral Naismith, Charles Stross, Martin Wisse, Laura Gjovaag, NiTessine

The Three-Body Problem (10): Wombat-Socho, Vox Day, H.P., Bradley Armstrong, Joseph Tomaras, Nick Mamatas, Brian Z; Kat Jones, Andrew Hickey, Harold Carper

Ancillary Sword (8½): Steve Davidson, Nicholas Whyte, John Snead, Lisa Goldstein, maybe Cat Faber; Timo Pietilä, Joe Sherry, Bonnie McDaniel, Rhiannon Thomas

Skin Game (1): Patrick May

No Award (1): Michael Z. Williamson

Best Novella: 11 new bloggers to add to the previous 19, for a total of 30, and more than half of them are supporting No Award in this category. "Big Boys Don't Cry" is in joint second place with "One Bright Star To Guide Them". There is one voter who thinks she might vote for "The Plural of Helen of Troy". Those in my previous survey are in blue; new additions to the list should be in red.

No Award (17½): Joseph Tomaras, Steve Davidson, Nicholas Whyte, Timo Pietila, Melina Dahms, Font Folly, Abigail Nussbaum, Laura Gjovaag, Marion, Lisa Goldstein, Cat Faber; Jon F. Zeigler, Kat Jones, ase, Michael Z. Williamson, NiTessine, Bonnie McDaniel, possibly Alex Pierce

"Big Boys Don't Cry" (4): Chris Gerrib, Peter Enyeart, Brian Z; Harold Carper

"One Bright Star To Guide Them" (4): Vox Day, Nick Mamatas; Rich Horton, Mark Ciocco

"Pale Realms of Shade" (3): Rachel Neumeier, Joe Sherry; H.P.

"Flow" (1): Patrick May.

"The Plural of Helen of Troy" (½): possibly Alex Pierce

Best Novelette: With 9 more votes surveyed, making a total of 32, No Award has pulled sufficiently far in front of a fractured field that I think I can call it the definite leader now. "The Triple Sun" and "The Day The World Turned Upside Down" are effectively level for second place, but "The Journeyman: In The Stone House" and "Ashes to Ashes, Dust to Dust, Earth to Alluvium" are not far behind either. Still nobody who admits voting for "Championship B'Tok". Those in my previous survey are in blue; new additions to the list should be in red.

No Award (14): Andrew Hickey, Kat Jones, Nicholas Whyte, Melina Dahms, Timo Pietilä, Laura Gjovaag, Abigail Nussbaum, Brian Z, Lisa Goldstein, Cat Faber and Steve Davidson; ase (probably), Michael Z. Williamson, Alex Pierce

"The Triple Sun" (6½): Kiesa, Rachel Neumeier, Mark Ciocco, Joe Sherry, Joseph Tomaras, Peter Enyeart maybe Marion; Jon F. Zeigler

"The Day The World Turned Upside Down" (5½): Font Folly, Russell Blackford, Chris Gerrib, maybe Marion; Charlotte Ashley.

"The Journeyman: In The Stone House" (3): Patrick May; H.P., Rich Horton

"Ashes to Ashes, Dust to Dust, Earth to Alluvium" (3): Nick Mamatas; Bonnie McDaniel, Harold Carper (probably)

Best Short Story: Another 10 votes here, taking to total to 35, and even more so than with Best Novelette, No Award has now pulled far enough ahead of the field to be declared the clear front-runner with more than half the votes and more than twice as many as "Totaled", its nearest rival. The surprise development here is that while I found nobody supporting "A Single Samurai" in my previous survey, this time round I picked up two or three (one of which was a post written some time ago). Nobody has yet declared that their first preference will go to "The Parliament of Beasts and Birds". Those in my previous survey are in blue; new additions to the list should be in red.

No Award (20): Andrew Hickey, Katya Czaja, Timo Pietilä, Melina Dahms, Martin Petto, Nicholas Whyte, Steve Davidson, Font Folly, Abigail Nussbaum, Laura Gjovaag, Nick Mamatas, Brian Z, Lisa Goldstein, Cat Faber; Kat Jones, Aaron Pound, ase (almost certainly), Michael Z. Williamson, Alex Pierce, Bonnie McDaniel

"Totaled" (9): Mark Ciocco, Liz Barr, Chris Gerrib, Rachel Neumeier, Patrick May, Joseph Tomaras, Russell Blackford, Peter Enyeart; Jon F. Zeigler

"A Single Samurai" (2½): H.P., Rich Horton, possibly Harold Carper

"Turncoat" (2½): Vox Day, Vivienne Raper; possibly Harold Carper

"On a Spiritual Plain" (1): Joe Sherry.

Please let me know if I have misrepresented your vote, or misused your preferred online handle, in the list above. And please point me to other lists; as I said, I hope to do one more update post, though it may be after the voting deadline on 31 July.

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Jul. 18th, 2015 12:32 pm (UTC)
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