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The Voters of Sasquan, updated

A couple of weeks back I crunched some numbers to look at the question of whether this year's Worldcon voters might be measurably either more liberal or more conservative than last year's, comparing the membership figures for Sasquan with those from Loncon 3. This is an update with some new details which I found interesting; there was more to the figures than I had realised.

Last October, The Hill published its ranking (apologies for autoplay voiceover; just turn it off) of the 50 states from blue (which for Americans is left-wing) to red (which for Americans is right-wing). Applying their ranking to the updated Sasquan figures for the 50 states, where 7,335 of Sasquan's 9,000 members live, gives us this table (alas, I had to drop the District of Columbia from my table as the Hill didn't list it, though presumably it would have been off the scale at the top):

State Sasquan Loncon Population %Sasquan %Loncon %USpop Hill ranking
Washington 1463 239 7,061,530 19.9% 6.0% 2.2% 1
Minnesota 147 117 5,457,173 2.0% 2.9% 1.7% 2
Oregon 347 73 3,970,239 4.7% 1.8% 1.2% 3
California 1160 693 38,802,500 15.8% 17.3% 12.2% 4
Rhode Island 13 9 1,055,173 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 5
New York 271 235 19,746,227 3.7% 5.9% 6.2% 6
Massachusetts 330 282 6,745,408 4.5% 7.0% 2.1% 7
Maryland 226 152 5,976,407 3.1% 3.8% 1.9% 8
Michigan 129 78 9,909,877 1.8% 1.9% 3.1% 9
Wisconsin 95 73 5,757,564 1.3% 1.8% 1.8% 10
Maine 22 18 1,330,089 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 11
Illinois 260 246 12,880,580 3.5% 6.1% 4.0% 12
Hawaii 13 10 1,419,561 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 13
Connecticut 55 37 3,596,677 0.7% 0.9% 1.1% 14
Vermont 14 7 626,562 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 15
New Jersey 108 92 8,938,175 1.5% 2.3% 2.8% 16
Delaware 15 10 935,614 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 17
Iowa 95 47 3,107,126 1.3% 1.2% 1.0% 18
Pennsylvania 156 108 12,787,209 2.1% 2.7% 4.0% 19
New Mexico 44 33 2,085,572 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 20
New Hampshire 42 43 1,326,813 0.6% 1.1% 0.4% 21
Nevada 38 30 2,839,099 0.5% 0.7% 0.9% 22
Ohio 131 102 11,594,163 1.8% 2.5% 3.6% 23
West Virginia 10 8 1,850,326 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% 24
Colorado 171 105 5,355,866 2.3% 2.6% 1.7% 25
Florida 154 107 19,893,297 2.1% 2.7% 6.3% 26
Virginia 224 142 8,326,289 3.1% 3.5% 2.6% 27
Missouri 92 51 6,063,589 1.3% 1.3% 1.9% 28
Arkansas 22 20 2,966,369 0.3% 0.5% 0.9% 29
Kentucky 38 24 4,413,457 0.5% 0.6% 1.4% 30
Louisiana 41 27 4,649,676 0.6% 0.7% 1.5% 31
Tennessee 54 45 6,549,352 0.7% 1.1% 2.1% 32
Indiana 62 41 6,596,855 0.8% 1.0% 2.1% 33
Montana 38 4 1,023,579 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 34
North Carolina 122 69 9,943,964 1.7% 1.7% 3.1% 35
Georgia 91 58 10,097,343 1.2% 1.4% 3.2% 36
Arizona 136 65 6,731,484 1.9% 1.6% 2.1% 37
South Dakota 8 8 853,175 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 38
North Dakota 5 5 739,482 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 39
Texas 447 234 26,956,958 6.1% 5.8% 8.5% 40
South Carolina 32 23 4,832,482 0.4% 0.6% 1.5% 41
Wyoming 11 1 584,153 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 42
Utah 106 67 2,942,902 1.4% 1.7% 0.9% 43
Oklahoma 42 23 3,878,051 0.6% 0.6% 1.2% 44
Nebraska 26 24 1,881,503 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 45
Mississippi 6 7 2,994,079 0.1% 0.2% 0.9% 46
Kansas 54 37 2,904,021 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 47
Idaho 101 11 1,634,464 1.4% 0.3% 0.5% 48
Alaska 23 12 736,732 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 49
Alabama 46 50 4,849,377 0.6% 1.2% 1.5% 50


The median US inhabitant, on The Hill's ranking, lives in Ohio, the 23rd most liberal state; 49.14% of Americans live in more liberal states, 47.22% live in more conservative states.

Half of all Loncon 3 members from the 50 US states lived in the most liberal 12 of those states: Washington, Minnesota, Oregon, California, Rhode Island, New York, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Wisconsin, Maine and Illinois.

Given the fact that Sasquan is taking place in the Pacific Northwest, it will not be a big surprise that its membership is more skewed. More than half of Sasquan's members from the 50 US states live in Washington, Minnesota, Oregon, California, Rhode Island, New York and Massachusetts, which together represent 26% of the population of the 50. The other 43 states account for only 49% of Sasquan's members. 70.53% of Sasquan members from the 50 states live in states that are at least as liberal as Ohio, which as noted above is where the median inhabitant of the 50 states lives.

Of course, I have no information about whether Sasquan members are in general more or less liberal or conservative than the rest of the people living in their states. But it is pretty clear that Sasquan members are considerably more likely to come from liberal states than from conservative ones.

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