First up, the BSFA, which has given us an unusually wide choice, eight novels due to a multiple tie for fourth place in the nominating process.
| Goodreads | LibraryThing | |||
| owners | av rating | owners | av rating | |
| The First Fifteen Lives of Harry August, by Claire North | 7535 | 4.00 | 337 | 4.07 |
| Ancillary Sword, Anne Leckie | 4308 | 4.09 | 317 | 4.16 |
| Cuckoo Song, by Frances Hardinge | 334 | 4.18 | 53 | 4.27 |
| Lagoon, by Nnedi Okorafor | 268 | 3.72 | 49 | 4.06 |
| Wolves, by Simon Ings | 101 | 3.37 | 28 | 3.70 |
| Europe in Autumn, Dave Hutchinson | 85 | 3.81 | 36 | 3.64 |
| The Moon King, by Neil Williamson | 40 | 3.50 | 17 | 3.70 |
| The Race, by Nina Allan | 16 | 4.44 | 8 | 3.63 |
Apart from the fifth and sixth placed books, the order is consistent between the two systems, and it's also fairly clear that Harry August and Ancillary Sword have both wildly outsold the rest combined; though it may be worth noting that Cuckoo Song is more popular on both systems among those who have read it.
Last year, the BSFA Award had two winners, for the first time in its history. As the ratings stood on the day the shortlist was announced, Ancillary Justice was top on Goodreads and second on LibraryThing; Ack-Ack Macaque was third on GR and fourth, i.e. second last, on LT. These statistics may be a decent guide to what has already sold well, but only the vaguest of indications as to what will actually win.
A similar, if not stronger, warning applies to the Kitschies, where there are two shortlists to consider. The Red Tentacle, for best novel, consists of the following five books:
| Goodreads | LibraryThing | |||
| owners | av rating | owners | av rating | |
| Grasshopper Jungle, by Andrew Smith | 5130 | 3.76 | 231 | 3.73 |
| The Peripheral, by William Gibson | 3360 | 4.04 | 320 | 3.98 |
| Lagoon, by Nnedi Okorafor | 267 | 3.72 | 49 | 4.06 |
| The Way Inn, by Will Wiles | 105 | 3.50 | 31 | 2.83 |
| The Race, by Nina Allan | 16 | 4.44 | 8 | 3.63 |
Again, two strong leaders, but this is a juried award, so even less likely to be reflective of purchasing patterns, and I note that The Race is rated highest by GR users and Lagoon by LT users. Having said that, last year the winner was indeed the leader by this system.
The Golden Tentacle, awarded by the Kitschies for best debut novel, also has five nominees, but here there is a very clear front-runner:
| Goodreads | LibraryThing | |||
| owners | av rating | owners | av rating | |
| The People in the Trees, by Hanya Yanagihara | 3122 | 3.54 | 255 | 3.67 |
| The Girl in the Road, by Monica Byrne | 890 | 3.56 | 109 | 3.59 |
| Memory of Water, by Emmi Itäranta | 850 | 3.78 | 108 | 3.92 |
| Viper Wine, by Hermione Eyre | 78 | 3.56 | 31 | 3.88 |
| The Long Way to a Small, Angry Planet, by Becky Chambers | 54 | 4.33 | 3 | - |
Note however the strong showing of Memory of Water, highest rated on LT and second highest on GR.
I am necessarily being a bit circumspect in my commentary this year, but I've read eleven of the sixteen books above, and enjoyed almost all of them.