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Both last year and in 2011 I did a survey of how bloggers had declared that they would vote for the four written fiction categories of the Hugo awards. I have done a similar survey for this year, presented below. I make the following excuses and caveats:
  1. I'm sorry if I omitted your blog post. I did my best to be comprehensive using Google, but it doesn't get everywhere and it will miss things. (I note that it failed to pick up my own posts on this Livejournal!) But I also deliberately skipped over posts where no clear order of preference was expressed.
  2. I'm sorry if I misinterpreted your first preference, or more importantly if I used the wrong handle for you. Please let me know and I will correct it.
  3. Both in 2011 and in 2013, not a single blogger in my initial survey admitted to voting for the actual winner of the Best Novel category. There were loads of Willis and Scalzi voters who simply weren't recording their preferences anywhere I could see them. The same may be happening this year (though not for WIllis or Scalzi, neither of whom is a finalist).
Having said that, there are two very clear front-runners in two of the fiction categories, so that can be taken as a fairly strong indication.

Best Novel

16 votes for Ancillary Justice (Elliotte Rusty Harold, D.L. of GoodReads, Kat of GoodReads, mgbino of Mobilereads, Pete731 of Mobilereads, Kate Nepveu, Rebecca Demarest, Martin Wisse, Joe Sherry, ReadingSFF, Richard Kettlewell, Rachel Coleman, Steven Halter, Stormsewer, Chris Gerrib and Nicholas Whyte)

4 votes for Neptune's Brood (Andrew Hickey, Timo Pietilä, Kaedrin and Ron Corral)
2 votes for The Wheel of Time (Diabolical Plots and Jack Vickeredge)
1 vote for Parasite (Jeff of GoodReads)
1 vote for No Award (Martin Petto)
1 vote for Warbound (Vox Day)

Comment: Not at all surprising that there is a front-runner here, considering how awards have gone so far this year. On transfers, Parasite rather easily overtakes The Wheel of Time for third place, and No Award passes both The Wheel of Time and Warbound for fourth place. I imagine that The Wheel Of Time will do a bit better than fifth in reality.

Best Novella

6 votes for "Equoid" (Jon Grantham, Steven Halter, Ron Corral, Diabolical Plots, Pete731 of Mobilereads and Timo Pietilä)
6 votes for Six-Gun Snow White (Nicholas Whyte, Stormsewer, Andrew Hickey, Richard Kettlewell, ReadingSFF and Kat of GoodReads)
5 votes for "The Chaplain's Legacy" (Chris Gerrib, Vox Day, Kaedrin, Jeff of GoodReads and Pancakeloach)

3 votes for The Butcher of Khardov (Justin Alexander, Alan Heuer and Rebecca Demarest)
2 votes for "Wakulla Springs" (secritcrush and Tompe of Mobilereads)
1 vote for No Award (Martin Petto)

Comment: Essentially a dead heat with six votes each for the top two stories, and five for the one in third place. When I looked at transfers they didn't resolve the tie between the top two, though they also didn't lift the third-placed story any. Assuming that "Equoid" and Six-Gun Snow White take the top two places, third place goes to "Wakulla Springs" on transfers; fourth to "The Chaplain's Legacy"; and fifth to The Butcher of Khardov, with No Award putting in a strong showing in the final stages.

Best Novelette

9 votes for "The Truth of Fact, the Truth of Feeling" (Jeff of GoodReads, Nicholas Whyte, Alan Heuer, Richard Kettlewell, Kaedrin, Rebecca Demarest, Justin Alexander, Jon Grantham and Stormsewer)
7 votes for "The Lady Astronaut of Mars" (Andrew Hickey, Steven Halter, Ron Corral, Timo Pietilä, ReadingSFF, Pete731 of Mobilereads and Chris Gerrib)

5 votes for "The Waiting Stars" (Liv Diabolical Plots, Martin Wisse, Kate Nepveu and Kat of GoodReads)

1 vote for "The Exchange Officers" (Pancakeloach)
1 vote for "Opera Vita Aeterna" (Vox Day)
1 vote for No Award (Martin Petto)

Comment: Another close race here, though with a clearer ranking among the top three stories. If Chiang takes the top spot, I make it still very close for the second place between de Bodard and Kowal, with Kowal perhaps in the lead. After that we get into interesting territory, with many putting No Award head of "The Exchange Officers", and most putting it ahead of "Opera Vita Aeterna".

Best Short Story

12 votes for "The Water That Falls on You from Nowhere" (Kaedrin, Timo Pietilä, Rebecca Demarest, DrNefario of Mobilereads, Chris Gerrib, Nicholas Whyte, Andrew Hickey, Steven Halter, Rachel Coleman, Diabolical Plots, Joe Sherry and Liv)

7 votes for "Selkie Stories are for Losers" (ReadingSFF, Martin Wisse, Kat of GoodReads, Justin Alexander, Jon Grantham, Martin Petto and Richard Kettlewell)

4 votes for "If You Were a Dinosaur My Love" (Kate Nepveu, Stormsewer, Jeff of GoodReads and Ron Corral)
2 votes for No Award (Pancakeloach and Vox Day)
1 vote for "The Ink Readers of Doi Saket" (Pete731 of Mobilereads)

A clear front-runner here, if not as overwhelmingly as in the Best Novel category. Second place goes just as clearly to "Selkie Stories Are For Losers", and third to "If You Were a Dinosaur, My Love"; and there are enough transfers to pull "The Ink Readers of Doi Saket" decently ahead of No award for fourth place despite its poor performance on first preferences.

I should add that I have no privileged information about how voting is actually going. The above numbers represent only those votes I was able to tabulate fairly quickly from a quick google search, and past experience shows that this is only the roughest of guides to who will actually win the awards.

If you are a member of Loncon 3, you can vote for the 2014 Hugos here and for the 1939 Retro Hugos here.

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Comments

( 11 comments — Leave a comment )
londonkds
Jul. 30th, 2014 10:12 pm (UTC)
It seems symptomatic that Beale couldn't even be bothered to endorse his fellow slate member for short story.
nwhyte
Jul. 31st, 2014 08:04 am (UTC)
Who was that then?
catsittingstill
Jul. 31st, 2014 12:49 pm (UTC)
All the short story nominees are clean; no "hate slate" entries there. That's why he had no endorsement.
newandrewhickey
Jul. 31st, 2014 12:43 pm (UTC)
I do wish I'd not been under so much stress this month so I could actually have read the ebook of Ancillary Justice I ended up buying, as I suspect I'd have moved it higher based on what people have said about it getting better after the excerpt in the packet.
And after reading Parasite in full, the *only* reason I'm keeping it above the Correia is that the writer seems a more pleasant human being. Shockingly lazy book...
catsittingstill
Jul. 31st, 2014 12:57 pm (UTC)
Err, if you'd like to include mine in the tally, they are:

Best Novel:
Ancilary Justice
Neptune's Brood
Parasite
Wheel Of Time
No Award
Warbound

Best Novella:
Six-Gun Snow White
Equoid
Wakkulla Springs
No Award
Chaplain's Legacy
Butcher of Kardov

Best Novellette:
The Truth of Fact, The Truth of Feeling
The Waiting Stars
Lady Astronaut of Mars
No Award
The Exchange Officers
Opera Vita Aeterna

Best Short Story
The Water That Falls On You From Nowhere
If You Were A Dinosaur, My Love
Selkie Stories Are For Losers
The Ink Readers Of Doi Saket

If you don't want to include mine (it's not like I have a lot of readers, as far as I know) that is perfectly okay.
nwhyte
Jul. 31st, 2014 10:23 pm (UTC)
I think our tastes are dangerously similar - your votes are very close to mine!

I might do an update post in a couple of days and will incorporate yours and a couple of others too.
chris_gerrib
Jul. 31st, 2014 01:07 pm (UTC)
Thanks for including me in your list, but I'm almost the "anti-Hugo" voter - I didn't vote for the last two Hugo-winning novels.
slemslempike
Jul. 31st, 2014 07:58 pm (UTC)
Apologies if I'm being dense - but why are some of the titles bolded?
nwhyte
Jul. 31st, 2014 10:26 pm (UTC)
If they are published as standalone books, I bold the titles (and also tally them separately in my bookblogging). Otherwise I put the title in quotes, if it's a story published in a magazine or collection.
sierra_le_oli
Jul. 31st, 2014 08:17 pm (UTC)
You've motivated me into getting my posts out of drafts. :-) So, if you'd still like to add them, here they are (full ranking in the links):

Best Novel: Ancillary Justice.

Best Novella: Six-Gun Snow White.

Best Novelette: The Waiting Stars.

Best Short Story: The Water That Falls on You From Nowhere.
nwhyte
Jul. 31st, 2014 10:29 pm (UTC)
Thanks! I may do an update post next week.
( 11 comments — Leave a comment )

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