April 8th, 2020


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Hugo final ballot Goodreads/Librarything statistics

I have not tracked systematically how good a guide this is to the likely winner of the awards, but it's a useful yardstick for how far finalists have managed to penetrate the general market. In each table I have ranked the books by geometric average of their number of owners on Goodreads and LibraryThing, and bolded the highest average ranking in each category.

Best Novel
Goodreads LibraryThing
owners av rating owners av rating
The Ten Thousand Doors of January, by Alix E. Harrow 139037 4.11 647 4.14
Gideon the Ninth, by Tamsyn Muir 73792 4.25 546 4.19
Middlegame, by Seanan McGuire 70258 4.08 328 4.18
A Memory Called Empire, by Arkady Martine 43577 4.18 437 4.14
The City in the Middle of the Night, by Charlie Jane Anders 38557 3.58 404 3.76
The Light Brigade, by Kameron Hurley 16359 3.99 196 3.8

Seanan McGuire scoring notably better on Goodreads than LibraryThing. Gideon the Ninth getting the best average rating on both.

Best Novella
Goodreads LibraryThing
owners av rating owners av rating
"Anxiety Is the Dizziness of Freedom", by Ted Chiang (Exhalation) 93782 4.3 656 4.19
This Is How You Lose The Time War, by Amal El-Mohtar and Max Gladstone 87078 4.01 534 3.82
In an Absent Dream, by Seanan McGuire 32887 4.2 331 4.26
The Deep, by Rivers Solomon 46868 3.77 214 3.86
To Be Taught, If Fortunate, by Becky Chambers 30503 4.23 285 4.14
The Haunting of Tram Car 015, by P. Djèlí Clark 7639 4.08 164 4.14

For Ted Chiang's story, I am giving the numbers of Exhalation, the collection it was published in. This Is How You Lose The Time War has more Goodreads owners than all but one of the Best Novel finalists, and more LibraryThing owners than all but two of them.

Best Related Work
Goodreads LibraryThing
owners av rating owners av rating
The Lady from the Black Lagoon, by Mallory O'Meara 18450 4.05 171 3.92
Becoming Superman, by J. Michael Straczynski 4842 4.65 84 4.58
The Pleasant Profession of Robert A Heinlein, by Farah Mendlesohn 165 4.02 34 4.2
Joanna Russ, by Gwyneth Jones 75 4.2 11 3.83
Worlds of Ursula K. Le Guin, by Arwen Curry
John W. Campbell Award Acceptance Speech, by Jeannette Ng

One of these is a documentary film and another was a speech, so no numbers can be given. The ratings for Becoming Superman are very high indeed.

Best Graphic Story or Comic
Goodreads LibraryThing
owners av rating owners av rating
Mooncakes, by Wendy Xu & Suzanne Walker 29842 3.9 108 3.56
Monstress, Vol. 4: The Chosen, by Marjorie Liu (writer), Sana Takeda (artist) 8218 4.24 136 4.13
Paper Girls, Vol 6, by Brian Vaughan (writer), Cliff Chiang & Matt Wilson (artists) 7513 4.19 93 4.03
Die, Vol. 1: Fantasy Heartbreaker, by Kieron Gillen (writer), Stephanie Hans (artist) 5223 4.1 89 3.98
The Wicked + The Divine, Vol. 9: Okay, by Kieron Gillen (writer), Jamie McKelvie, & Matt Wilson (artists) 4524 4.26 69 4.18
LaGuardia, by Nnedi Okorafor (writer), Tana Ford (artist) , James Devlin (colours) 1526 4.08 38 3.88

Mooncakes has clearly tickled the Goodreads community much more than the LibraryThing community; and yet also has the lowest average ranking on both systems. The final installment of The Wicked + The Divine has the highest rating on both.

Goodreads LibraryThing
owners av rating owners av rating
The Wicked King, by Holly Black 211351 4.44 663 4.34
Dragon Pearl, by Yoon Ha Lee 25020 3.82 271 3.79
Deeplight, by Frances Hardinge 9436 4.24 52 4.13
Minor Mage, by T. Kingfisher 5489 4.18 61 4.02
Catfishing on CatNet, by Naomi Kritzer 2220 4.13 83 4.63
Riverland, by Fran Wilde 1324 4.03 33 4.13

Massive lead for The Wicked King on all metrics. One other indicator though is the ratio of the more fannish LibraryThing readers to the more general Goodreads users, where Naomi Kritzer is well in front.

Retro Best Novel
Goodreads LibraryThing
owners av rating owners av rating
Sirius: A Fantasy of Love and Discord, by Olaf Stapledon 3096 3.9 419 3.91
The Golden Fleece, by Robert Graves 2185 4.04 510 3.74
The Wind on the Moon, by Eric Linklater 2255 3.95 301 3.8
Land of Terror, by Edgar Rice Burroughs 1178 3.72 295 3.47
The Winged Man, by A. E. Van Vogt and E. Mayne Hull 256 3.44 187 2.87
Shadow Over Mars/The Nemesis from Terra, by Leigh Brackett 150 3.28 75 3.45

Sirius has the most GR readers and the highest ranking from LT users; The Golden Fleece has the most LT readers and the highest ranking from GR users. For Leigh Brackett I amalgamted the GR readings for both titles of the book, which is catalogued separately there - it still has the lowest GR rating of any book here. (And The Winged Man has the lowest LT ranking.)

Strange times, and not quite four months to go.