February 10th, 2020

ireland

Irish election latest

Lots more numbers overnight. Below seats in bold have declared their final results; seats in red are where I have either changed my prediction from last night, or else been proved wrong by the result. FF not doing as well on transfers - including internal transfers - as I had expected.

Constituency Seats FG FF SF GP Lab SD PBP Ind
Carlow-Kilkenny 5 1 3 1 possible GP overtake 3rd FF
Cavan-Monaghan 5 1 2 2
Clare 4 1 2 1 0 I now think FG not Ind
Cork East 4 1 1 1 1 Count complete
Cork North-Central 4 1 1 1 1 0 I now think SPBP not Ind
Cork North-West 3 1 2 Count complete
Cork South-Central 4 1 2 1 Count complete
Cork South-West 3 0 1 1 1 SD did overtake FG; count complete
Donegal 5 1 2 2
Dublin Bay North 5 1 1 1 1 1 possible Green overtake SD
Dublin Bay South 4 1 1 1 1
Dublin Central 4 1 0 1 1 1 SD have overtaken FF
Dublin Fingal 5 1 1 1 1 1
Dublin Mid-West 4 1 1 2 SPBP currently ahead of FG but I think will slip behind again
Dublin North-West 3 1 1 1
Dublin Rathdown 3 2 1 Count complete
Dublin South-Central 4 1 1 1 1
Dublin South-West 5 1 1 1 1 1
Dublin West 4 1 1 1 1 Count complete
Dún Laoghaire 4 1 1 1 1 FF overtook 2nd FG; count complete
Galway East 3 1 1 1 Count complete
Galway West 5 1 1 1 2 Second Ind polling well.
Kerry 5 1 1 1 2
Kildare North 4 1 1 1 1 FG will overtake 2nd FF
Kildare South 3 1 1 1 plus CC (FF)
Laois-Offaly 5 1 2 1 1
Limerick City 4 1 1 1 0 1 Ind has overtaken GP
Limerick County 3 1 1 0 1 Ind overtook SF; count complete
Longford-Westmeath 4 1 1 1 1
Louth 5 1 2 1 1 Lab have overtaken FF
Mayo 4 2 1 1 Don't know how I miscounted that! Count complete
Meath East 3 1 1 1 Count complete
Meath West 3 1 1 1 (Ind is Aontu) Count complete
Roscommon-Galway 3 0 1 2 SF stayed ahead of FF
Sligo-Leitrim 4 0 1 1 1 1 Poor FG internal transfers lost seat to GP; count complete
Tipperary 5 1 1 1 2
Waterford 4 1 1 1 1
Wexford 5 1 1 1 1 1 Ind has overtaken 2nd FF
Wicklow 5 1 1 1 1 1 possible 2nd FG overtake GP
Total 159 36 42 37 9 7 5 4 19
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February 2005 books

February 2005 was rather a busy month. The Macedonian government held a major reception in Brussels on Valentine's day, which I attended with family in tow, and then referenced in a briefing on the country published a few days later. I went to Geneva to give a lecture, and ended the month in Belgrade, but also had a couple of trips to London - on one of which I attended Picocon at Imperial College, bonding with a lot of newish friends in sf fandom; and using another for an initial conversation with my future employer, who I had met in Kosovo the previous year. It would be another year and a half before the conversation turned into something more concrete.

Books I read in February 2005:

Non-fiction 3 (YTD 6)
Blowing My Cover: My Life As A CIA Spy, and other misadventures, by Lindsay Moran
Theft of A Nation: Romania since Communism, by Tom Gallagher
Cyprus: The Search for a Solution, by David Hannay

SF 10 (YTD 15)
Cloud Atlas, by David Mitchell
The Ethos Effect, by L.E. Modesitt Jr
Heartfire, by Orson Scott Card
His Majesty's Starship, by Ben Jeapes
We/Мы, by Yevgeny Zamyatin/Евгений Иванович Замятин
Manna from Heaven, by Roger Zelazny
Foundation's Edge, by Isaac Asimov
Forty Signs of Rain, by Kim Stanley Robinson
ThiGMOO, by Eugene Byrne
Stamping Butterflies, by Jon Courtenay Grimwood

4,800 pages (TYD 8,200)
1/13 (YTD 3/22) by women
none by PoC

Best book of the month was Zamyatin's dystopian We, a fore-runner to 1984 and Brave New World; you can get it here. Second best probably Cloud Atlas; you can get it here. Deeply unimpressed by Lindsay Moran's take on Macedonia. You can get that here.