April 10th, 2016


Interesting Links for 10-04-2016

not happy

PSA: Stroke awareness

Two friends of mine have suffered strokes this month (and it's only the 10th) - both women of about 40, living in Belgium. I'm glad to hear that cygny is recovering, but Keni has been taken from us far too soon. Everyone, remember FAST:

Facial weakness: Can the person smile? Has their face fallen on one side?

Arm weakness: Can the person raise both arms and keep them there?

Speech problems: Can the person speak clearly and understand what you say? Is their speech slurred?

Time: If you see any one of these three signs, it’s TIME to call emergency services. Stroke is always a medical emergency that requires immediate medical attention.

It can happen to any of us.

A profitable weekend

Oh frabjous day! I discovered yesterday that the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency has released enough information to enable me to map the District Electoral Areas, used for local government elections, onto the existing parliamentary constituencies.

Election results in Ireland and the UK are not released with the granularity you get in other countries, where it's not uncommon to publish how many people voted for each candidate in a given polling precinct or even village (Dixville Notch being the classic case). If, as I do, you're sometimes in the business of aggregating vote statistics from an election at one level to those at another, this is a problem. It's an even bigger problem if, due to non-coinciding schedules of the boundary revision processes, the boundaries for one set of elections are completely out of whack with those for another.

The local government structure of Northern Ireland was overhauled a few years ago, and elections held in 2014 to a whole new set of 11 councils with 80 electoral areas. The electoral map is a bit cluttered. But using the 2011 census figures, I've been able to reconstruct the share of population of each DEA onto parliamentary / Westminster / Assembly constituencies as follows:

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It's not going to be a perfect match for the distribution of voters, since not all those in the 2011 census can vote (some are too young, some are not eligible). But it's a good starting point, and I hope to be publishing the projected results from 2014 on the elections website soon.

(So no Double Deckers update this weekend; I've been busy number-crunching.)

Edited to add: Winston Duff challenges me on Twitter:

I disagree:

Winston replies:

This illustrates the limitations of the census approach - when I look at it more closely, there are indeed five Small Areas that are described as being mostly in the new Torrent DEA but partly in the new Dungannon DEA, and I guess five small parts of small areas could well add up to a bit more than nothing. Oh well, a health warning on these figures is always appropriate.