July 3rd, 2015

politics

Links I found interesting for 03-07-2015

buzz

2015 Hugo fiction: How bloggers are voting

For three of the last four years, I carried out a survey of how bloggers were planning to vote in the Hugos. Last year this proved a fairly effective methodology, calling Best Novel and Best Short Story correctly and pinging the actual winners as front-runners for Best Novella and Best Novelette. In 2013 two winners were clear and two were missed (including Best Novel). In 2011, however, my survey failed to pick a single winner of the four fiction categories. So this should be taken as a straw poll, necessarily incomplete and this year earlier than usual. There is certain to be a selection bias in that people who feel more strongly are more likely to blog about it; so we have no insight into the preferences of less articulate or invested voters.

Having said that, the results are interesting. In particular, No Award appears to be leading in all the short fiction categories (though not necessarily decisively in every case), and there is no clear single front-runner for Best Novel.

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I haven't looked at other categories in detail, as the numbers are still fairly few, but it's already clear that 2015 will see No Award do better than any recent years.

Please let me know if I have misrepresented your vote, or misused your preferred online handle, in the list above. And please point me to other lists; if I am able, I hope to do an update post before the voting deadline on 31 July.

(Updated later on 3 July to bring in a few more votes.)
(Updated again on 4 July for two more voters. This post will not be updated again, but I will hope to do another update before the end of voting.)