May 24th, 2014

ni

Northern Ireland #LE14 The story so far

This is an election with few dramatic changes. The major parties have pretty much stayed as they were, as far as we can tell given the changed boundaries. The DUP, SF and Alliance have perhaps slipped back a little, and the UUP moved forward a bit, but that impression based on yesterday's counts is slight enough to be reversible today. (My first take from Mid Ulster early yesterday afternoon was that the SDLP and UUP were in trouble; this was not really borne out by later data.)

The smaller parties have had a good poll. TUV have done best, with at least half a dozen seats in the bag, and UKIP and the PUP have also made gains in places where they had not previously had representation. The People Before Profit Alliance took a seat in West Belfast and the Greens are likely to double their representation in North Down. But NI21 are nowhere to be seen (I hear rumours that they may get some small comfort from Lisburn today).

The list below is of those DEAs where all seats have been filled; my comments on the notional change from the 2011 local elections must be taken with a huge pinch of salt. I am particularly uneasy about the Lisburn/Castlereagh projections, but include them here for completeness.

I'll be on the box again at 2pm: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b045g9h7

Collapse )