Nicholas (nwhyte) wrote,
Nicholas
nwhyte

The Georgian single-mandate constituencies #gvote

The single-mandate constituencies

It has been inaccurately suggested that the UNM might quite naturally maintain a lead among the single-mandate constituencies in the Georgian election, even if it loses the proportional vote by a significant margin.
Examination of the actual results from the 2008 parliamentary and presidential elections demonstrates that this is not true.
It is the case that if the UNM and opposition got the same vote nationwide, the opposition could expect to win 28 or 29 seats, and the UNM therefore 44 or 45.
But if the opposition lead nationally by 5% - which is the lowest figure proposed by any of tonight’s exit polls – they should win 35 or 36 seats, and the UNM therefore 37 or 38, with the opposition also sufficiently far ahead from the proportional vote to be the largest group in the parliament.
If the opposition lead nationally by 6% they should get a majority of the single-mandate seats as well.
Please see details below, identifying constituencies and ranking them in order of how vulnerable they should be to a uniform swing of votes from UNM to the opposition, based on the two 2008 polls.

Projection of results from parliamentary election 2008

28 seats where UNM loses, if level with opposition nationally:
Vake, Didube, Nadzaladevi, Saburtalo, Gldani, Chugureti, Mtatsminda, Stefantsminda, Mestia, Samgori, Isani, Bordjomi, Rustavi, Chiatura, Kutaisi, Batumi, Vani, Kharagauli, Zestafoni, Lanchkhuti, Samtredia, Krtsanisi, Tsageri, Oni, Foti, Tikibuli, Tskaltubo, Baghdati
8 more seats (running total 36) where UNM loses if opposition is 5% ahead nationally
Khoni, Khelvachauri, Keda, Telavi, Sagaredjo, Sachkhere, Khobi, Kvareli
1 more seat (running total 37 – majority of single-mandate seats) where UNM loses if opposition is 6.03% ahead nationally
Ambrolauri
6 more seats (running total 42) where UNM loses if opposition is 10% ahead nationally:
Dusheti, Ozurgeti, Dedoflistskharo, Terdjoa, Tetritskharo, Abasha
7 more seats (running total 49 –two-thirds of single-mandate seats) where UNM loses if opposition is 15% ahead nationally
Chkhorotskhu, Kobuleti, Sighanghi, Gurdjaani, Tianeti, Gadarbani, Lagodekhi

Projection of results from presidential election 2008
29 seats where UNM loses, if level with opposition nationally:
Dusheti, Saburtalo, Vake, Chugureti, Nadzaladevi, Mtatsminda, Didube, Stefantsminda, Gldani, Isani, Samgori, Ozurgeti, Dedoflistskharo, Batumi, Lanchkhuti, Chokhatauri, Gurdjaani, Bordjomi, Rustavi, Khelvachauri, Kutaisi, Tianeti, Foti, Zestafoni, Akhmeta, Telavi, Chiatura, Lentekhi, Kobuleti
6 more seats (running total 35) where UNM loses if opposition is 5% ahead nationally
Mestia, Kharagauli, Mtskheta, Krtsanisi, Sachkhere, Samtredia
3 more seats (running total 38, more than majority of single-mandate seats) where UNM loses if opposition is 6% ahead nationally
Kaspi, Kvareli, Sagaredjo
6 more seats (running total 44) where UNM loses if opposition is 20% ahead nationally

Projection from Parliamentary vote 2008 - detail
rankdistrictdistrict #UNM vote in 2008opposition lead nationally to win seat
1stVake233,7%-49,4%
2ndDidube837,0%-43,0%
3thNadzaladevi937,7%-41,5%
4thSaburtalo337,8%-41,3%
5thGldani1039,3%-38,3%
6thChugureti740,1%-36,8%
7thMtatsminda144,1%-28,7%
8thStefantsminda2944,5%-27,9%
9thMestia4745,8%-25,3%
10thSamgori646,0%-24,9%
11thIsani546,9%-23,2%
12thBordjomi3648,7%-19,6%
13thRustavi2048,7%-19,5%
14thChiatura5649,6%-17,7%
15thKutaisi5950,1%-16,8%
16thBatumi7950,2%-16,5%
17thVani5350,3%-16,4%
18thKharagauli4850,3%-16,4%
19thZestafoni5151,2%-14,6%
20thLanchkhuti6152,4%-12,2%
21stSamtredia5452,9%-11,1%
22ndKrtsanisi454,5%-8,0%
23rdTsageri4555,1%-6,6%
24thOni4355,2%-6,6%
25thFoti7055,3%-6,4%
26thTikibuli5755,8%-5,3%
27thTskaltubo5857,6%-1,8%
28thBaghdati5258,3%-0,3%
29thKhoni5558,7%0,5%
30thKhelvachauri8359,1%1,4%
31stKeda8059,2%1,5%
32ndTelavi1759,2%1,6%
33rdSagaredjo1159,5%2,1%
34thSachkhere5060,5%4,0%
35thKhobi6660,7%4,4%
36thKvareli1660,9%5,0%
37thAmbrolauri4461,5%6,0%
38thDusheti2861,8%6,8%
39thOzurgeti6062,2%7,5%
40thDedoflistskharo1462,3%7,7%
41stTerdjoa4962,4%7,9%
42rdTetritskharo2662,5%8,0%
43thAbasha6362,8%8,8%
44thChkhorotskhu6963,7%10,5%
45thKobuleti8163,9%10,9%
46thSighanghi1364,7%12,4%
47thGurdjaani1264,9%12,9%
48thTianeti1965,5%14,1%
49thGadarbani2165,6%14,4%
50thLagodekhi1565,7%14,4%
51stChokhatauri6266,1%15,2%
52ndSenaki6467,0%17,2%
53rdShuakhevi8267,1%17,3%
54thZugdidi6767,4%17,9%
55thTsalendjikha6868,2%19,5%
56thMartvili6568,2%19,6%
57thAkhmeta1868,5%20,1%
58thKhulo8469,4%21,9%
59thMtskheta2769,5%22,0%
60thKhashuri3570,2%23,5%
61stGori3270,9%24,9%
62ndLentekhi4673,1%29,3%
63rdKaspi3073,2%29,5%
64thTsalka2573,5%30,1%
65thMarneuli2273,8%30,7%
66thKareli3376,9%36,8%
67thAkhaltsikhe3780,6%44,2%
68thDmanisi2482,9%48,8%
69thBolnisi2383,0%49,1%
70thAdigeni3886,5%56,1%
71stAspindza3986,8%56,7%
72ndAkhalkalaki4090,1%63,3%
73rdNinotsminda4191,7%66,4%

Projection from Presidential vote 2008 - detail
rankDistrict NameDistrictSaakashvili voteopposition lead nationally to win seat
1stDusheti2828,4%-45,9%
2ndSaburtalo328,6%-45,5%
3thVake230,0%-42,9%
4thChugureti730,9%-41,1%
5thNadzaladevi931,5%-39,9%
6thMtatsminda131,5%-39,8%
7thDidube832,0%-38,9%
8thStefantsminda2935,3%-32,1%
9thGldani1035,8%-31,3%
10thIsani536,4%-30,1%
11thSamgori640,6%-21,6%
12thOzurgeti6040,8%-21,2%
13thDedoflistskharo1441,2%-20,3%
14thBatumi7941,4%-20,1%
15thLanchkhuti6142,0%-18,9%
16thChokhatauri6242,2%-18,4%
17thGurdjaani1243,8%-15,2%
18thBordjomi3644,0%-14,8%
19thRustavi2044,4%-14,0%
20thKhelvachauri8345,2%-12,4%
21stKutaisi5945,4%-12,0%
22ndTianeti1945,5%-11,7%
23rdFoti7046,6%-9,6%
24thZestafoni5147,9%-7,1%
25thAkhmeta1849,8%-3,1%
26thTelavi1749,9%-3,1%
27thChiatura5650,8%-1,2%
28thLentekhi4651,1%-0,6%
29thKobuleti8151,2%-0,3%
30thMestia4751,5%0,3%
31stKharagauli4852,3%1,7%
32ndMtskheta2752,4%2,0%
33rdKrtsanisi453,1%3,3%
34thSachkhere5053,1%3,3%
35thSamtredia5453,8%4,8%
36thKaspi3054,2%5,5%
37thKvareli1654,2%5,5%
38thSagaredjo1154,4%6,1%
39thBaghdati5256,8%10,9%
40thKeda8059,4%16,0%
41stAmbrolauri4460,4%17,9%
42rdOni4360,6%18,4%
43thLagodekhi1560,9%19,0%
44thKhashuri3561,8%20,8%
45thSighanghi1362,4%22,0%
46thTerdjoa4962,9%23,1%
47thTetritskharo2664,2%25,6%
48thTskaltubo5865,0%27,1%
49thGori3265,1%27,3%
50thKareli3365,9%29,0%
51stAbasha6366,1%29,3%
52ndKhobi6666,7%30,7%
53rdKhulo8467,5%32,3%
54thTikibuli5768,7%34,5%
55thVani5369,0%35,2%
56thShuakhevi8270,9%38,9%
57thKhoni5571,1%39,5%
58thAspindza3972,5%42,3%
59thChkhorotskhu6972,6%42,5%
60thMartvili6573,2%43,6%
61stTsageri4574,1%45,4%
62ndTsalka2574,7%46,6%
63rdZugdidi6774,9%46,9%
64thSenaki6475,6%48,3%
65thGadarbani2175,7%48,7%
66thTsalendjikha6878,2%53,6%
67thAdigeni3879,7%56,6%
68thAkhaltsikhe3782,8%62,9%
69thDmanisi2484,1%65,3%
70thBolnisi2386,6%70,4%
71stAkhalkalaki4089,7%76,7%
72ndNinotsminda4189,7%76,7%
73rdMarneuli2290,4%77,9%
Tags: world: georgia
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