November 3rd, 2004

politics

Calming down

John Quiggin on Crooked Timber finds cold comfort.
If Kerry does win after all, it will be under the worst possible circumstances. A minority of the popular vote, a hostile Congress and the need to prevail in a vicious legal dogfight in Ohio. The Republicans will be out for impeachment from Inauguration Day, if not before that. At this stage, a Kerry victory would produce the worst of all possible worlds - responsibility without power.
William Saletan on Slate is (once again) pushing John Edwards:
If you have any doubt about his electability, just read the exit polls from the 2004 Democratic primaries. If you don't think he's ready to be president—if you don't think he has the right credentials, the right gravitas, the right subtlety of thought—ask yourself whether these are the same things you find wanting in George W. Bush. Because evidently a majority of the voting population of the United States doesn't share your concern. They seem to be attracted to a candidate with a simple message, a clear focus, and a human touch. You might want to consider their views, since they're the ones who will decide whether you're sitting here again four years from now, wondering what went wrong.
I'm not completely convinced. He wasn't able to come close to carrying North Carolina (11% behind Bush/Cheney, got only 84% of registered Democrats to vote for the ticket).

Anyway the idea that Democrats can only win with a Southern candidate was effectively disproved last night (even though they lost). It looks like the losing margin will be less in Iowa and New Mexico than it was in Florida, the only Southern state they were ever in contention for. Had Kerry won Ohio, he could have become President without winning a single state from south of the Mason-Dixon line (except parts of California).

Hillary in '08? (I think not, but maybe Obama?)