Nicholas (nwhyte) wrote,
Nicholas
nwhyte

Northern Ireland: the new constituency boundaries

Here is my projection of the three most recent election results in Northern Ireland - the 2010 Westminster election, the 2011 Assembly election and the 2011 local council elections - onto the sixteen proposed new constituency boundaries. For each constituency I note the old constituencies from which its voters have been drawn, the changes proposed, the projected results and the likely consequences for Westminster and Assembly representation.

(See also my BBC commentary here.)





North Belfast (89% from old N Belfast, 11% from old W Belfast):
Takes in three Shankill wards.

DUP UUP Oth U Alliance Oth SDLP SF
2010 W 40.6% 8.8% 0.0% 7.3% 1.0% 11.2% 31.1%
2011 A 37.9% 10.3% 0.0% 5.9% 6.7% 10.7% 28.6%
2011 lg 38.2% 8.4% 1.7% 6.9% 5.5% 11.7% 27.6%

DUP position consolidated at Westminster. For Assembly, SF and DUP have two safe seats; last two are between SDLP, 3rd DUP, UUP, Alliance.


South West Belfast (71% from old W Belfast, 29% from old S Belfast)
Loses Shankill, takes in whole of Balmoral electoral area and central Shaftesbury ward.
DUP UUP Oth U Alliance Oth SDLP SF
2010 W 8.3% 5.6% 0.0% 4.4% 0.9% 25.4% 55.4%
2011 A 8.0% 4.5% 0.2% 5.9% 5.6% 17.7% 58.1%
2011 lg 6.5% 4.4% 0.0% 5.5% 8.1% 19.0% 56.6%


SF dominance of the old West Belfast preserved at Westminster; SDLP strong second but very much second. For Assembly, 4 SF, 1 SDLP, last seat probably DUP though could be SDLP.


South East Belfast (65% from old E Belfast, 35% from old S Belfast)
Loses Dundonald, takes in rest of South Belfast apart from Carryduff.
DUP UUP Oth U Alliance Oth SDLP SF
2010 W 29.1% 19.5% 3.5% 29.8% 1.0% 15.4% 1.8%
2011 A 36.5% 10.8% 8.7% 24.3% 3.7% 9.1% 6.9%
2011 lg 32.1% 12.9% 7.5% 27.5% 4.9% 8.8% 6.3%

Very tight between Alliance and DUP for Westminster; Alliance just ahead on 2010 figures, and though behind on 2011 votes have tactical potential. For Assembly, 2 DUP seats, 2 Alliance, probably 1 UUP and 1 SDLP.


South Antrim (82% from old S Antrim, 18% from old E Antrim)
Loses Glenavy, takes in all of Newtownabbey not in North Belfast and three Greenisland wards from Carrickfergus.
DUP UUP Oth U Alliance Oth SDLP SF
2010 W 37.2% 30.2% 5.7% 7.7% 0.0% 7.6% 11.7%
2011 A 40.8% 18.1% 5.1% 14.4% 0.4% 8.8% 12.3%
2011 lg 37.9% 22.4% 2.9% 14.9% 2.3% 9.3% 10.2%

DUP Westminster position slightly consolidated. For Assembly, 2 DUP seats, one each for UUP, SF and Alliance; last seat probably 3rd DUP though could be UUP in a better year.


Lagan Valley (91% from old Lagan Valley, 5% from S Antrim, 4% from Upper Bann)
Gains Glenavy from S Antrim and Aghagallon from Upper Bann.
DUP UUP Oth U Alliance Oth SDLP SF
2010 W 46.8% 20.4% 8.0% 11.3% 0.0% 6.5% 7.0%
2011 A 49.8% 19.4% 2.8% 12.2% 1.5% 7.5% 6.8%
2011 lg 48.6% 20.7% 1.9% 11.5% 1.9% 7.2% 8.2%

DUP remain dominant at Westminster. They have three Assembly seats and UUP one; last two could go to a Nat candidate slightly more likely SF), Alliance, fourth DUP, second UUP in that order.


Strangford (65% from old Strangford, 18% from old S Belfast, 17% from old E Belfast)
Regains Dundonald from E Belfast and Carryduff from S Belfast; loses Ards Peninsula to N Down.
DUP UUP Oth U Alliance Oth SDLP SF
2010 W 41.6% 26.1% 4.7% 14.0% 1.5% 10.2% 1.9%
2011 A 45.6% 18.1% 5.8% 16.9% 1.5% 8.3% 3.8%
2011 lg 44.8% 17.1% 3.1% 18.4% 6.2% 7.7% 2.7%

DUP remain dominant at Westminster. 3 DUP seats in Assembly, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance, last could be SDLP, fifth Unionist.


Mid Antrim (59% from old E Antrim, 41% from old N Antrim)
Unites most of Larne, most of Carrickfergus, and 17 Ballymena wards from North Antrim. Poor Ballymena separated from its northern hinterland.
DUP UUP Oth U Alliance Oth SDLP SF
2010 W 49.9% 19.5% 12.3% 5.5% 0.0% 5.7% 7.0%
2011 A 50.2% 15.6% 9.4% 10.1% 1.2% 5.0% 8.5%
2011 lg 40.5% 16.3% 8.9% 12.6% 11.4% 5.7% 4.7%

DUP hold all Antrim seats at Westminster and will continue to hold this one. For Assembly, three DUP, 1 UUP, probably 1 Alliance, and probably 1 Nationalist more likely SF) though 4th DUP has a chance.


North Antrim (59% from old N Antrim, 36% from old E Londonderry, 6% from old E Antrim)
Loses Ballymena, gets back three Moyle wards and gains Carnlough, gets three of four Coleraine DEAs leaving Coleraine separated from its western hinterland.
DUP UUP Oth U Alliance Oth SDLP SF
2010 W 42.0% 14.2% 13.7% 4.9% 0.0% 10.9% 14.3%
2011 A 43.6% 10.5% 12.5% 5.8% 0.2% 10.5% 16.9%
2011 lg 37.6% 16.1% 6.0% 3.8% 13.2% 9.7% 13.6%

Merges good DUP territory in N Antrim with better end of E Londonderry, so DUP keep Westminster seat. 3 DUP at Assembly, 1 UUP, 1 SF, likely last is TUV but poss SDLP in a better year.


Glenshane (52% from old E Londonderry, 48% from old Mid Ulster)
Limavady, Magherafelt, two Derry wards, three Cookstown wards and Bann DEA from Coleraine.
DUP UUP Oth U Alliance Oth SDLP SF
2010 W 21.8% 13.3% 7.1% 3.7% 0.0% 16.6% 37.6%
2011 A 23.8% 9.2% 7.9% 3.3% 1.8% 16.4% 37.5%
2011 lg 22.6% 12.5% 5.2% 1.4% 3.1% 16.8% 38.4%

SF well ahead for Westminster; single Unionist candidate, though just ahead on paper, would likely provoke tactical vote by other Nats. For Assembly, 2 SF, one each for DUP, SDLP, probably UUP and last seat awfully tight; probably third SF, could be second DUP.


Foyle (93% from old Foyle seat, 3% from old W Tyrone)
Takes three Strabane wards 100%as it had before 1996)
DUP UUP Oth U Alliance Oth SDLP SF
2010 W 13.8% 5.1% 0.0% 0.6% 7.2% 41.9% 31.5%
2011 A 20.5% 1.6% 0.0% 0.8% 10.7% 32.9% 33.5%
2011 lg 17.4% 4.4% 0.5% 0.9% 7.7% 35.6% 33.5%

Durkan is OK for Westminster. But new territory from Strabane is enough to put SF neck and neck at other elections. For Assembly, 2 SDLP, 2 SF, 1 DUP; last seat most likely goes to more transfer-friendly SDLP but Eamonn McCann still in with a chance.


Mid Tyrone (61% from old W Tyrone, 39% from old Mid Ulster)
Comprises most but not all of Cookstown, Strabane and Omagh, with Torrent DEA of Dungannon.
DUP UUP Oth U Alliance Oth SDLP SF
2010 W 16.0% 11.8% 2.6% 1.9% 0.9% 14.7% 52.1%
2011 A 18.7% 9.4% 1.7% 1.8% 4.9% 11.5% 52.0%
2011 lg 14.4% 14.7% 1.7% 0.9% 10.5% 13.6% 44.2%

SF dominant at Westminster 100%this seat from parts of two they hold). For Assembly, probably 3 SF, 1 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP, though SDLP a bit shaky and dissidents did well in local election; and UUP at risk.


Fermanagh and South Tyrone (88% from old FST, 12% from old W Tyrone)
Gets six Omagh wards added to current boundaries.
DUP UUP Oth U Alliance Oth SDLP SF
2010 W 1.9% 1.4% 40.5% 1.1% 0.5% 8.4% 46.2%
2011 A 23.9% 18.1% 2.3% 1.8% 2.5% 9.5% 41.8%
2011 lg 20.9% 21.8% 1.3% 0.6% 6.7% 13.1% 35.5%

SF reinforced here at Westminster level. For the Assembly they probably get three seats, and UUP and DUP one each; last seat should go to the stronger or smarter Unionist party but SDLP have a chance.


Newry and Armagh (all from old Newry and Armagh)
Loses Tandragee to Upper Bann.
DUP UUP Oth U Alliance Oth SDLP SF
2010 W 12.3% 18.2% 1.4% 1.2% 0.0% 23.9% 42.9%
2011 A 12.6% 17.9% 1.9% 1.6% 0.2% 24.1% 41.7%
2011 lg 11.5% 18.1% 0.6% 0.0% 5.9% 23.2% 40.6%

SF consolidated at Westminster. No change at Assembly, 3 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP, 1 DUP.


Upper Bann (97% from old Upper Bann, 3% from old Newry and Armagh)
Gains Tandragee from N+A, loses Aghagallon to Lagan Valley and Loughbrickland to S Down. Banbridge now rather isolated at southern end of constituency.
DUP UUP Oth U Alliance Oth SDLP SF
2010 W 34.8% 27.1% 0.1% 2.7% 0.0% 12.0% 23.2%
2011 A 28.1% 26.0% 3.2% 6.3% 0.0% 10.8% 25.5%
2011 lg 30.4% 25.1% 2.8% 4.0% 3.4% 11.7% 22.6%

DUP remain in front for Westminster, though UUP not that far behind. Assembly remains 2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 SDLP, 1 SF.

South Down (97% from old S Down, 3% from old Upper Bann)
Gains Loughbrickland from Upper Bann.
DUP UUP Oth U Alliance Oth SDLP SF
2010 W 9.3% 7.8% 3.5% 1.3% 2.1% 47.6% 28.5%
2011 A 12.9% 11.0% 5.5% 2.2% 2.6% 35.1% 30.7%
2011 lg 9.5% 14.0% 5.6% 2.2% 5.3% 35.2% 28.1%

SDLP lead reinforced. But Assembly seats unchanged at 2 SDLP, 2 SF, 1 UUP, 1 DUP.


North Down (83% from old N Down, 17% from old Strangford)
Gains Ards Peninsula from Strangford
DUP UUP Oth U Alliance Oth SDLP SF
2010 W 6.3% 20.8% 57.5% 6.8% 3.0% 3.8% 1.7%
2011 A 43.5% 11.6% 8.0% 18.4% 11.6% 5.1% 1.9%
2011 lg 38.3% 13.9% 3.8% 18.3% 20.3% 5.3% 0.0%

Lady Hermon remains dominant at Westminster; without her, DUP are much the biggest party. No change at Assembly level - 3 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance, 1 Green.

So, I give the DUP 7 Westminster seats (down 1), SF 5, the SDLP 2 (down 1), Lady Hermon 1 and Alliance 1 (just). At Assembly level, while there is much more margin of error to my calculations, I put the DUP on about 33 seats (down 5), SF on 27 (down 2), the UUP on 14 (down 2), SDLP 13 (down 1), Alliance 7 (down 1) and Greens and TUV keeping their single seats; I think David McClarty is in trouble. (Edited to add: I may be wrong about the TUV seat in North Antrim being salvageable - certainly Jim Allister seems despondent.)

Much wailing and gnashing of teeth to come, I think.
Tags: boundary commission 2011, world: northern ireland
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