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South Belfast, #bels11 #ae11

South Belfast

Anna Lo AP 6,390 19.8%
Alasdair McDonnell SDLP 4,527 14.0%
Jimmy Spratt DUP 4,045 12.5%
Alex Maskey SF 4,038 12.5%

Ruth Patterson DUP 3,800 11.8%
Conall McDevitt SDLP 3,191 9.9%
Michael McGimpsey UUP 2,988 9.2%

Mark Finlay UUP 1,394 4.3%
Clare Bailey GRN 889 2.8%
Brian Faloon PBPA 414 1.3%
Paddy Meehan SOC 234 0.7%
Nico Torregrosa UKIP 234 0.7%
Paddy Lynn WP 135 0.4%
Charles Smyth PROC 29 0.1%

I stuck my neck out here last night, predicting that McDevitt could hold onto the SDLP seat with various lefty transfers despite his party being outpolled by the DUP, but he duly did so, leaving the two DUP runners to fight it out for the final seat. No change here.


( 3 comments — Leave a comment )
May. 7th, 2011 04:50 pm (UTC)
Question: based on this, should Alliance have run a 2nd candidate? Because that's a phenomenal result and there was nowhere for her votes to transfer to, really plased with that.
May. 8th, 2011 09:01 am (UTC)
Given the breakdown of votes - DUP and SDLP both on 24% and toughing it out for the last seat - I wouldn't see a second Alliance seat there. But it wouldn't take much of a rise for that to happen.
May. 14th, 2011 08:04 pm (UTC)
S belfast
For the second assembly election in a row the combined unionist vote was greater than the total nationalist vote yet nationalists have one more seat than unionists in this constituency.Interesting too that,accounting for turnout,the DUP vote is remarkably similar between 2010 in both percentage and numerical terms whereas the SDLP garnered only about half the number of voters in this election compared to last years poll.McDonnel evidently has a wide ranging coalition of voters here in terms of Westminster elections.If enough people begin to view Annal Lo as a serious contender,coupled with unionist tactical votes, I believe Alliance would have a good chance of adding South Belfast to their Westminster tally.
( 3 comments — Leave a comment )

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