Nicholas (nwhyte) wrote,
Nicholas
nwhyte

Scores on the doors #GE11

Well, tallies are now in at least for all constituencies and Tipperary South, Dublin West and Dublin Mid West have actually completed all counts in the election, so it looks as if the new Dáil will look as follows:

  Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Green Others
Carlow-Kilkenny 2 2 1 - - -
Cavan-Monaghan 1 2 - 2 - -
Clare 1 2 - - - 1
Cork East 1 2 1 - - -
Cork North Central 1 1 1 - - 1
Cork North West 1 2 - - - -
Cork South Central 2 2 1 - - -
Cork South West 1 2 0 - - -
Donegal North East 1 1 - 1 - -
Donegal South West 1 1 - 1 - -
Dublin Central 0 1 1 1 - 1
Dublin Mid West - 2 2 0 - -
Dublin North 0 2 1 - - 1
Dublin North Central - 1 1 - - 1
Dublin North East - 1 1 1 - -
Dublin North West 0 - 2 1 - -
Dublin South 0 3 1 - - 1
Dublin South Central - 1 2 1 - 1
Dublin South East - 2 2 - - -
Dublin South West - 1 2 1 - -
Dublin West 1 1 1 - - 1
Dun Laoghaire - 2 1 - - 1
Galway East 1 2 - - - 1
Galway West 1 2 1 - - 1
Kerry North-West Limerick - 1 1 1 - -
Kerry South - 1 0 - - 2
Kildare North - 2 1 - - 1
Kildare South 1 1 1 - - -
Laois-Offaly 2 2 - 1 - -
Limerick City 1 2 1 - - -
Limerick 1 2 - - - -
Longford-Westmeath 1 2 1 - - -
Louth 0+CC 2 1 1 - -
Mayo 1 4 0 - - -
Meath East 0 2 1 - - -
Meath West 0 2 - 1 - -
Roscommon-South Leitrim - 2 0 - - 1
Sligo-North Leitrim 1 2 - 0 - -
Tipperary North - 1 1 - - 1
Tipperary South - 1 - - - 2
Waterford 1 2 1 - - -
Wexford 1 2 1 - - 1
Wicklow - 3 1 - - 1
Total 25+CC 74 33 13 0 20


I have bolded where my predictions from yesterday were wrong or are likely to prove so. Overall I think I gave FG four seats too many, Labour three seats too many, Independents three seats too few and Fianna Fáil four seats too few. This was partly a general bias of wishful thinking; I observe however that the voters were even more cruel to FF than my predictions in Dublin, Louth and Meath, where I had expected they would win eight seats but in fact they will get only one; conversely they will win eleven seats elsewhere in the country (of their total of 25!) which I did not expect. SF will miss seats I thought they would get in SligoNorth Leitrim and Dublin West, but will get seats I thought they wouldn't in Laois-Offaly and Meath West. I am kicking myself for two obvious errors, failing to spot Shane Ross's likely victory in Dublin South, and giving Labour two seats in Kildare South where they had only one candidate. But overall I'm not displeased with my punditry, though I should have been a little more conservative with respect to the three big parties and a bit more imaginative with respect to the independents.
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