Well, Lady Sylvia Hermon announced her resignation from the UUP yesterday, which means that for the first time since the party was founded it does not have a single member in the House of Commons (there are handful of cross-benchers in the House of Lords who remain affiliated with the party).
I predicted in my previous post that if Lady Hermon, even running as an independent against the UUP/Conservative candidate, must be considered front-runner to retain the seat, especially if she gets the support, whether formal or informal, of parties like Alliance and the Greens. The Alliance candidate, my good friend Stephen Farry, says he is fighting on.
What I had not anticipated is the sudden swirl of rumours that the DUP, who I saw as the strongest competition to Lady Hermon, may actually decline to contest the seat against her. The DUP, now dominant in Unionism, have been running strong on 'Unionist unity' in the most recent period, challenging the UUP to agree joint candidates in the nationalist-held seats of Fermanagh-South Tyrone and South Belfast, and even hinting that they might stand aside unilaterally in the absence of a formal deal. The DUP also have recent form on not contesting elections when it doesn't suit them.
I suspect Lady Hermon must feel somewhat ambivalent at the prospect of DUP support. Her branding, after all, is as the sensible end of the Unionist spectrum, with the ability to gain votes from the entire population. I'm sure she would prefer to win by defeating the DUP candidate than with DUP support. But the choice is not hers to make.