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This is my initial submission to the Boundary Commission of Northern Ireland's 2018 review. It is very long, but has lots of maps. I had a (fairly accurate) guess at what the Commission might come up with in February, and gave some initial comments to the BBC last month.

Dear Commissioners,


  1. Introduction

I maintain the Northern Ireland elections website at http://www.ark.ac.uk/elections, the most substantial archive of electoral information regarding the region available anywhere. Although I have not resided in Northern Ireland since 1997, I maintain a strong interest in these matters; I am a Visiting Professor in the Faculty of Social Science at Ulster University, and was invited by BBC Northern Ireland to participate in their live telecasts of the election results in 2010, 2011, 2014, 2015 and 2016. I was a candidate in North Belfast in 1996, and electoral agent for a local council by-election in 1995, but am not at present a member of any Northern Irish political party. The views expressed below are my own and should not be attributed to any other organisation.


  1. Overall observations

The Commission functions under a number of important constraints, of which the most important is the requirement to keep the electorate of proposed constituencies between 69,401 and 78,507, and also the use of ward boundaries as the building blocks for proposed constituencies. Both of these constraints are tighter than in the aborted 2011-2012 review, when the permissible size of constituencies was broader (70,583 to 80,473) and the wards were more numerous (there were then 582; there are now 462). I have further comment on both of those constraints below, but for now I acknowledge the very real difficulties faced by the Commission in executing its mandate.

I agree with several crucial elements of the Provisional Proposals. First, it is clear that Belfast cannot sustain four parliamentary constituencies, and must be reduced to three. Second, I agree that the Foyle, Newry and Armagh, and South Down constituencies, which are all at or near the electoral quota, should have only minimal changes, mainly to reflect the new ward boundaries.

I am concerned, however, that the Provisional Proposals seem often, and wrongly, to prioritise simple geographical contiguity of the electoral wards, without taking into account other important factors – in particular, the disruption to existing boundaries, and the fact that communication along the coast is often better than between the coast and the areas immediately inland. It should also be recognised that any ward with a non-urban element (ie most of them) will contain clusters ofpopulation internally, rather than a uniform spread.

Several of the constituencies proposed by the Commission are, frankly, awful. The union of Dungannon with Craigavon in the proposed Upper Bann and Blackwater seat, the West Antrim seat which stretches absurdly to within a mile of Belfast Lough, and the awkwardly balanced Dalriada seat all breach natural communities and lines of communication. The major changes to Fermanagh and South Tyrone, and to Upper Bann, in the Provisional Proposals are unnecessary, and most of those two existing constituencies can be preserved.

That of course has knock-on effects all around the map, with consequences outlined below, but in general I think the seats I propose have more manageable shapes and respect organic communities and internal linksbetter than those proposed by the Commission. In the specific cases of Belfast, Foyle, Newry and Armagh, and South Down, I largely agree with the Commission's proposals apart from a ward here and there.

I make these proposals not from the point of view of the interest of any political party, but with the goal of maximising satisfactory geography and minimising disruption to the current arrangements (which, alas, must still be substantial).

In summary, I propose that:


  • The proposed major change to Fermanagh and South Tyrone should be dropped. Only minimal changes are necessary.

  • Newry and Armagh should include most of Blackwatertown rather than Mahon.

  • South Down should include Ballynahinch, and Crossgar and Killyleagh, but not Loughbrickland or Rathfriland.

  • Upper Bann should lose Banbridge but gain Mahon (and a part of Blackwatertown) and Moira.

  • North Down should include the Ards Peninsula rather than Dundonald.

  • Strangford should include Dundonald and Carryduff, but not the Ards Peninsula.

  • Lagan Valley (which need not be renamed West Down) should include the urban core of Lisburn, and the rural heart of County Down including Banbridge, Loughbrickland and Rathfriland, but not Carryduff.

  • I agree to the proposed changes to Belfast, except that I would include the North Down and Ards ward of Loughview in East Belfast and would move Belvoir to South West Belfast and Ballymurphy to North West Belfast.

  • Foyle should include Claudy in Derry and Strabane District.

  • West Tyrone should be expanded to include the neighbouring wards of Park from Derry and Strabane District, and Donaghmore, Oaklands and Pomeroy from the Mid Ulster district. “Sperrin” might be a more appropriate name.

  • Glenshane should include the remainder of Mid Ulster and most of five wards from Causeway Coast and Glens.

  • A new Causeway Coast and Coleraine constituency should unite Limavady and Coleraine.

  • East Antrim should include the Glens, and Ballyclare rather than Newtownabbey.

  • West Antrim should include both Ballymena and Antrim town, but should not include Newtownabbey.

  • South Antrim should include most of Newtownabbey and the territory between Lough Neagh and Belfast.



  1. The numbers

But before getting to the detail, there are two important observations to be made regarding process.

First, the Commission states that "The legislation requires that...each constituency shall have an electorate of between 71,031 and 78,507". This is not true. As conceded later in its own report, the Commission has the discretion to define seats with an electorate as low as 69,401 if it deems that the higher limit would “unreasonably” impair its ability to draw up seats.

The wording of the Provisional Proposals suggests that the Commission regards this as a high bar. But as far as I can tell, exactly the same considerations under Rule 5 apply to the 69,401 threshold as to the 71,031 threshold. The Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland has been given greater freedom of manoeuvre than its counterparts in England, Scotland and Wales, and it should not hesitate to use that freedom; it has no obligation to consider any question relating to constituency size, other than ensuring that a proposed constituency has more than 69,401 and fewer than 78,507 electors. A couple of my own proposals below do need the extra flexibility of the 69,401 threshold, and in my view any arrangement which takes due note of local ties is very likely to need that flexibility.

Second, the Commission should not feel obliged to respect ward boundaries. The wording of the legislation on this point is notably weak: it is required only that the Commission "shall have regard" to ward boundaries. It makes sense to use the wards as starting blocks, but that need not survive to the final map.

The current wards are for the most part very recent creations, used for the first time only in the 2014 local government elections, and they do not necessarily reflect natural communities. In my own proposals I tentatively suggest two ward divisions (Blackwatertown and Altahullion), but I want to observe here the general difficulty of getting satisfactory boundaries, particularly in Counties Down and Tyrone, using the new wards, which are too big to be sufficiently flexible. The Commission should be ready to split wards (as I understand has been already proposed by their counterparts in England and Wales) to design better boundaries.


  1. Proposed alterations to the Provisional Proposals

3.1 Fermanagh and South Tyrone

The Commission’s Provisional Proposals err, as last time round, by optimizing the shape of the constituency for a single centre of gravity around Enniskillen. This is presumably the consequence of using naïve clustering software which prioritises contiguity within the geographical ward jigsaw over actually existing ties. In fact the constituency has always had two centres, Enniskillen and Dungannon; local ties tend to run within the old county boundaries, and the wards which it is proposed to add from the old County Tyrone have much stronger links towards Omagh than to Enniskillen, let alone the Clogher Valley. There is no need to breach those links, since the constituency can be preserved almost as it is.

Fermanagh and South Tyrone should therefore include the following 22 Fermanagh and Omagh district wards with 44,892 electors (but it should not include Dromore, Drumquin, Fintona, Newtownsaville or Trillick, which should remain in the seat based on the current West Tyrone):

Ballinamallard 2084 Florence Court and Kinawley 2117
Belcoo and Garrison 2062 Irvinestown 2110
Belleek and Boa 2267 Lisbellaw 2192
Boho, Cleenish and Letterbreen 2328 Lisnarrick 1948
Brookeborough 1852 Lisnaskea 1804
Castlecoole 2095 Maguiresbridge 2379
Derrygonnelly 2028 Newtownbutler 1881
Derrylin 1867 Portora 2056
Donagh 1960 Rosslea 1734
Ederney and Kesh 2056 Rossorry 1717
Erne 2308 Tempo 2047

It should also include the following 12 Mid Ulster district wards with 26,146 electors:

Augher and Clogher 2456 Fivemiletown 2105
Aughnacloy 2246 Killyman 2156
Ballygawley 2292 Killymeal 2053
Ballysaggart 1947 Moy 2125
Caledon 2467 Moygashel 1874
Castlecaulfield 2328 Mullaghmore 2097

These are essentially the Dungannon and Clogher Valley areas, excluding Coalisland as at present. The Commission’s Provisional Proposals keep five of these wards in Fermanagh and South Tyrone (Augher and Clogher, Aughnacloy, Ballygawley, and Fivemiletown); the current boundaries of Fermanagh and South Tyrone already include most or all of the other seven (Ballysaggart, Caledon, Castlecaulfield, Killyman, Killymeal, Moy, Moygashel, Mullaghmore).

There is no need to include any wards from Derry and Strabane district. Those which the Provisional Proposals would add look north rather than south.

This gives a total electorate of 71,038 which is (just!) within 5% of the quota.

3.2 Newry and Armagh

Newry and Armagh should continue to include 11 wards from Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon district with 38,060 electors:

(Blackwatertown) (3825) Navan 3508
Cathedral 3040 Richhill 3442
Demesne 3447 Seagahan 3656
Hamiltonsbawn 3471 Tandragee 3430
Keady 3492 The Mall 3232
Markethill 3517

This varies from the Provisional Proposals by including Blackwatertown and excluding Mahon. The Provisional Proposals would have separated the ward of Blackwatertown from its natural links to Armagh, and Mahon from its natural links to Portadown, and my proposal reverses both errors.

The top spike of the Blackwatertown ward gives a very inelegant boundary, and it should be divided at the level of Blackwatertown village itself, the townlands of Blackwatertown, Mullanary, Kilmore and Grange Blundell remaining in Newry and Armagh, and the townlands north of and including Tullykevan, Drumask, Drumarn, Keenaghan, Aghinlig and Lisasly moved to Upper Bann. I don’t have electorate figures, but it cannot be many voters; the population of Charlemont, the largest settlement in the northern spur, is given as 109 in the latest census.

Although Loughgall ward is mainly inside the current Newry and Armagh constituency, I agree with the Boundary Commission that it must be excluded to keep the constituency within 5% of the quota.

Newry and Armagh should also continue to include 13 wards from Newry, Mourne and Down district with 37,329 electors:

Abbey 2635 Fathom 2802
Ballybot 3165 Forkhill 2796
Bessbrook 3013 Mullaghbane 2829
Camlough 2822 Newtownhamilton 2703
Crossmaglen 2746 St. Patrick's 3211
Damolly 2859 Whitecross 2726
Drumalane 3022

These are the same as in the Commission’s Provisional Proposals.

The total electorate of these wards is 75,389, which is within 5% of the quota, even if a couple of hundred electors in the northern tip of Blackwatertown are moved to Upper Bann.

3.3 South Down

Here my proposals vary more from the current boundaries than do the Commission’s Provisional Proposals, but with the virtue that they respect and restore local ties. I propose to add the Newry, Mourne and Down wards of Ballynahinch, and Crossgar and Killyleagh, to South Down, as those all look naturally to Downpatrick; but to remove the Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon wards of Loughbrickland and Rathfriland; the former certainly looks more to Banbridge than it does to Newry, let alone Downpatrick. The constituency would therefore consist only of the following 25 wards all from Newry, Mourne and Down district, with a total electorate of 72,705:

Annalong 2959 Hilltown 3234
Ballydugan 2620 Kilkeel 2455
Ballynahinch 2884 Knocknashinna 3037
Ballyward 2986 Lecale 2916
Binnian 2949 Lisnacree 3162
Burren 2834 Mayobridge 3295
Castlewellan 2766 Murlough 3045
Cathedral 2738 Quoile 2754
Crossgar and Killyleagh 2884 Rostrevor 3103
Derryleckagh 3114 Strangford 2783
Donard 2657 Tollymore 2856
Drumaness 2820 Warrenpoint 2977
Dundrum 2877

The electorate of 72,705 is within 5% of the quota.

3.4 Upper Bann

The proposal to use the River Blackwater, which has functioned as a county and electoral boundary for centuries, as one of the spines of a new constituency, rather than a boundary between them, is the weakest element in the Provisional Proposals. The existing Upper Bann seat is only a little above the electoral quota, and it is straightforward to find a core of wards mostly within the Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon district that creates a constituency geography which both respects local ties and meets the other criteria. Compared to the current Upper Bann, these boundaries lose the Banbridge area, but gain Loughgall and part of Blackwatertown from Newry and Armagh, and Moira from Lagan Valley.

Upper Bann should therefore include the following 21 Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon district wards, with an electorate of 70,041, which is within the variation allowed for Northern Ireland though not within 5% of the quota:

Aghagallon 3408 Knocknashane 2972
Ballybay 3008 Lough Road 3328
Bleary 3326 Loughgall 3676
Brownlow 3681 Magheralin 3372
Corcrain 2946 Mahon 3151
Craigavon Centre 3349 Mourneview 3256
Derrytrasna 3367 Parklake 3394
Donaghcloney 3290 Shankill 3760
Gilford 3250 The Birches 3743
Kernan 3257 Waringstown 3734
Killycomain 2773 (Blackwatertown)

I have added the wards of Bleary, Donaghcloney, Gilford, Magheralin, Mahon, and Waringstown to the Commission’s recommendations for Upper Bann and Blackwater, but obviously have removed all of the Mid Ulster district wards.

As noted above, the tripoint between Upper Bann and Newry and Armagh can be made neater by dividing the Blackwatertown ward, with its less populous northern tip also moved to Upper Bann and the southern part remaining in Newry and Armagh.

I am normally wary of breaching district boundaries, but Moira is a special case – it is literally twice as close to Lurgan as it is to Lisburn, and there seems little harm in the new Upper Bann boundary reflecting that reality. Upper Bann should therefore include a single Lisburn and Castlereagh district ward:

Moira 2534

There is no need to include any of the Mid Ulster district wards that the Commission proposes for its Upper Bann and Blackwater seat.

The total electorate of Upper Bann will therefore be 72,575 which is within 5% of the quota, plus perhaps a couple of hundred if the northern tip of Blackwatertown is also included.

3.5 North Down

The Provisional Proposals expand the North Down constituency by adding Dundonald, with the reasonable observation that it was part of the seat until the 1990s. (I myself remember campaigning in the 1995 parliamentary by-election, which was fought on those boundaries.) However, the former North Down borough has now been united at local government level with Ards rather than with Castlereagh, so it seems preferable, if local ties are to be respected, to add to the existing seat a substantial new bloc of voters from within North Down and Ards district rather than elsewhere. Such a bloc can be found in the Ards Peninsula; the fact is that the majority of settlement there is on its western shore, which connects much more obviously to Bangor than to Newtownards. I therefore propose that the North Down seat should include only the following 27 wards from North Down and Ards district, with a total electorate of 76,561:

Ballycrochan 2602 Harbour 3006
Ballygrainey 3202 Helen's Bay 2790
Ballyholme 2891 Holywood 3117
Ballymagee 2995 Kilcooley 2714
Ballywalter 3161 Kircubbin 2920
Bloomfield 2804 Loughries 2830
Broadway 2768 Portaferry 2559
Bryansburn 2863 Portavogie 2569
Carrowdore 2917 Rathgael 2462
Castle 2772 Rathmore 2890
Clandeboye 2717 Silverbirch 2867
Cultra 2915 Silverstream 2531
Donaghadee 2890 Warren 2952
Groomsport 2857

This adds six more to the Provisional Recommendations (Ballywalter, Carrowdore, Kircubbin, Loughries, Portaferry and Portavogie) but removes Loughview, which I propose should be moved from North Down to East Belfast.

There is therefore no need to include any wards from Lisburn and Castlereagh district.

(Map included after my Strangford proposals.)

3.6 Strangford

If Strangford loses the Ards Peninsula as I propose (or indeed Dundonald, as the Commission proposes), it must gain electors from somewhere else. The obvious resource is Carryduff, which in fact produces a seat of just the right size, especially if Ballynahinch (which looks south anyway) is moved to South Down. I therefore propose that Strangford should include the following 12 wards from North Down and Ards district, all of which are in the current Strangford seat (and all of which the Provisional Proposals would also retain), with a total of 33,969 electors:

Ballygowan 3063 Glen 3056
Comber North 2738 Gregstown 2537
Comber South 2750 Killinchy 2590
Comber West 2681 Movilla 2549
Conway Square 2886 Scrabo 3078
Cronstown 3198 West Winds 2843

Also 3 wards from Newry, Mourne and Down district, which are also in the current Strangford constituency (and which the Provisional Proposals would retain), with 8,743 electors, but losing the wards of Ballynahinch and Crossgar and Killyleagh which look to Downpatrick:

Derryboy 2920 Saintfield 3006
Kilmore 2817

And 13 wards from Lisburn and Castlereagh district, bringing in the Dundonald area (which is much closer to Newtownards than it is to Bangor) and Carryduff (which cannot be retained in a Belfast seat), with a total of 30,375 electors:

Ballyhanwood 2228 Enler 2175
Beechill 2396 Galwally 2304
Cairnshill 2385 Graham's Bridge 2139
Carrowreagh 3081 Knockbracken 2488
Carryduff East 2490 Moneyreagh 2126
Carryduff West 2320 Newtownbreda 2000
Dundonald 2243

This adds nine wards (Ballyhanwood, Beechill, Carrowreagh, Carryduff West, Dundonald, Enler, Graham's Bridge, Knockbracken and Newtownbreda) to the Provisional Proposals for Strangford.

3.7 Lagan Valley

The Commission’s proposed seat of West Down stretches from Carryduff to Banbridge, and snakes through central Lisburn. My proposal transfers Carryduff to be in the same seat as its natural neighbour Dundonald, and I think achieves a better solution for Lisburn, keeping it with Hillsborough and Dromore and adding Banbridge, the main towns on the A1 road between Belfast and Newry.

Since the River Lagan remains the core of the Lisburn end of the seat, and my boundaries contain almost all of the river’s course outside Belfast, I propose that its name should remain Lagan Valley rather than West Down (the Lisburn elements are of course from the former County Antrim anyway).

This should therefore include the following 18 wards from Lisburn and Castlereagh district, with 42,097 electors:

Ballymacash 2290 Knockmore 2519
Ballymacbrennan 2293 Lagan 2339
Blaris 2201 Lagan Valley 2083
Dromara 2440 Lambeg 2291
Drumbo 2214 Lisnagarvey 2223
Harmony Hill 2257 Maze 2211
Hilden 2449 Old Warren 2397
Hillhall 2584 Ravernet 2258
Hillsborough 2545 Wallace Park 2503

Compared to the Commission’s proposed West Down, this removes Beechill, Carryduff West, Knockbracken and Newtownbreda to Strangford, and Moira to Upper Bann, but adds Ballymacash, Harmony Hill, and Hilden to the west of the River Lagan.

It should also include 9 wards from the Banbridge end of the Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon district, some of which are in the current Lagan Valley, with a total electorate of 29,738:

Banbridge East 3148 Gransha 3290
Banbridge North 3129 Loughbrickland 3790
Banbridge South 3311 Quilly 3012
Banbridge West 3623 Rathfriland 3313
Dromore 3122

This gives a total electorate for Lagan Valley of 71,835 which is within 5% of the quota.

3.8 East Belfast

I agree in general with the reasoning and conclusion in the Provisional Proposals that only three seats can be justified for Belfast, and that the natural dividing line between East Belfast and the rest of the city is the River Lagan.

I disagree on the inclusion of Belvoir ward in East Belfast. Although it is physically east of the Lagan, the major settlement is the Belvoir estate which is geographically at the top of the Malone Road, and therefore looks to South / South West Belfast rather than East. The 20 (rather than 21) Belfast wards which I would include in East Belfast, with a total electorate of 68,579, are:

Ballymacarrett 3528 Merok 3085
Beersbridge 3443 Orangefield 3405
Belmont 3534 Ormeau 3409
Bloomfield 3474 Ravenhill 3062
Connswater 3532 Rosetta 3636
Cregagh 3150 Sandown 3207
Garnerville 3478 Shandon 3755
Gilnahirk 3563 Stormont 3667
Hillfoot 3588 Sydenham 3333
Knock 3658 Woodstock 3072

This leaves East Belfast more than 5% under the electoral quota and also below the 69,401 threshold; I propose to add the Loughview ward from North Down and Ards district.

Loughview 2846

This is a more compact solution than the Provisional Proposals, with its total electorate of 71,425 within 5% of the quota.

3.9 Belfast South West

As noted above, I propose to move the Belvoir ward into the new South West Belfast seat. This makes it rather large; it also seems to me that Ballymurphy is a better fit with Beechmount, Clonard and Falls (which I agree must move to North West Belfast) than it is with Turf Lodge and Falls Park. If Ballymurphy is moved, South West Belfast would therefore contain the following 20 Belfast wards:

Andersonstown 3641 Malone 3399
Belvoir 3422 Musgrave 3472
Blackstaff 3682 Poleglass 3677
Central 4342 Shaw's Road 3816
Collin Glen 3888 Stewartstown 3566
Dunmurry 3774 Stranmillis 3832
Falls Park 3646 Turf Lodge 3472
Finaghy 3406 Twinbrook 3338
Ladybrook 3632 Upper Malone 3470
Lagmore 4409 Windsor 3804

With a total electorate of 73,688, this is within 5% of the quota.

3.10 North West Belfast

As noted above, I largely agree with the Commission’s Provisional Proposals for this seat, but would add Ballymurphy as well, as it is more closely linked to Beechmount, Clonard and Falls than to its southern and western neighbours Turf Lodge and Falls Park. North West Belfast would therefore include the following 20 Belfast wards with 70,215 electors:

Ardoyne 3645 Duncairn 3731
Ballygomartin 3994 Falls 3237
Ballymurphy 3377 Forth River 3112
Ballysillan 3333 Fortwilliam 3290
Beechmount 3497 Innisfayle 3700
Bellevue 3386 Legoniel 3540
Cavehill 3295 New Lodge 3310
Chichester Park 3688 Shankill 3997
Cliftonville 3574 Water Works 3757
Clonard 3665 Woodvale 3087

And, as the Commission proposes, 2 wards from Antrim and Newtownabbey district, with 4,428 electors. It is unarguable that Valley ward functions in many ways in practice as an extension of North Belfast. It is less clear that Collinbridge is as good a fit (considering where its populations actually lives) but including it here helps the map elsewhere.

Collinbridge 2,222 Valley 2,206

This gives a total of 74,643 electors, which is within 5% of the quota.

3.11 Foyle

Turning to the west, Foyle presents an interesting situation where the existing constituency is pretty much within the permitted limit already, and the Provisional Proposals  respect the existing boundaries, updated for the new wards. I would add the Claudy ward (which surely looks towards Derry City before anywhere else) to pull the total electorate closer to the quota and therefore create more space elsewhere. The Foyle constituency would thus include the following 28 wards from Derry and Strabane district, with a total electorate of 73,934, which is within 5% of the quota:

Ballymagroarty 2606 Foyle Springs 2585
Brandywell 2544 Galliagh 2734
Carn Hill 2316 Kilfennan 2729
Caw 2742 Lisnagelvin 2554
City Walls 2356 Madam's Bank 2412
Claudy 2536 New Buildings 2753
Clondermot 2661 Northland 2855
Creggan 2698 Shantallow 2752
Creggan South 2641 Shantallow East 3027
Culmore 2943 Sheriff's Mountain 2409
Drumahoe 2845 Skeoge 2770
Ebrington 2496 Slievekirk 2480
Eglinton 2688 Springtown 2478
Enagh 2667 Victoria 2657

Incidentally, Foyle is surely sufficiently compact and densely populated – particularly if my proposal of including Claudy is not accepted – that it could be considered as a borough constituency.

3.12 Sperrin / West Tyrone

If we keep Foyle and also Fermanagh and South Tyrone pretty much within their current boundaries, the current West Tyrone seat must be the base of the last of the western Border constituencies. Its current electorate is well below the quota; I propose to add the four neighbouring wards that are the most geographically contiguous with the West Tyrone base. These are Park from Derry and Strabane District, and Donaghmore, Oaklands and Pomeroy from the Mid Ulster district.

West Tyrone, however, is no longer appropriate as a name for the seat. Park is not in Tyrone, and Donaghmore, Oaklands and Pomeroy are not in the west of the old County. If these boundaries are accepted, “Sperrin” would be a more appropriate name.

Compared to the Commission’s proposed North Tyrone, this proposal has the benefit of being more compact and serving the hinterlands of Omagh and to an extent Strabane rather better. The Commission’s proposal stretches uncomfortably across the map; it is well over an hour’s drive between its two extremities, Strabane and Ardboe.

The Sperrin seat should therefore include the following 12 Derry and Strabane wards with 30,008 electors (the Provisional Proposals would include eight of these in North Tyrone, three in Fermanagh and South Tyrone, and one in Glenshane):

Artigarvan 2564 Glenelly Valley 2406
Ballycolman 2570 Newtownstewart 2283
Castlederg 2472 Park 2494
Dunnamanagh 2461 Sion Mills 2610
Finn 2807 Strabane North 2513
Glenderg 2435 Strabane West 2393

It would also include the following 18 wards from Fermanagh and Omagh district, with an electorate of 35,662 (13 are in the Commission’s proposed North Tyrone, five in its proposed Fermanagh and South Tyrone):

Beragh 2015 Gortin 2028
Camowen 2182 Gortrush 2090
Coolnagard 2184 Killyclogher 2070
Dergmoney 1711 Newtownsaville 1999
Dromore 1955 Owenkillew 1970
Drumnakilly 2053 Sixmilecross 1980
Drumquin 2066 Strule 1705
Fairy Water 2157 Termon 1832
Fintona 1786 Trillick 1879

And three wards from Mid Ulster district with a total electorate of 7,432 (all three are in the Commission’s North Tyrone):

Donaghmore 2559 Pomeroy 2552
Oaklands 2321

The total electorate of this seat is 73,102 which is within 5% of the quota.

3.13 Glenshane

The remaining parts of the Mid Ulster district leave us well short of the electoral quota, 25 wards with an electorate of only 59,252:

Ardboe 2622 Lissan 2459
Ballymaguigan 2614 Loughry 2033
Bellaghy 2556 Lower Glenshane 2249
Castledawson 2517 Maghera 2280
Coagh 2282 Stewartstown 2162
Coalisland North 2383 Swatragh 2377
Coalisland South 2476 Tamlaght O'Crilly 2467
Cookstown East 1974 The Loup 2704
Cookstown South 2206 Tobermore 2481
Cookstown West 2270 Town Parks East 2320
Coolshinny 2554 Valley 2406
Draperstown 2055 Washing Bay 2417
Glebe 2388

We have exhausted the resources to the south and west, and Lough Neagh (and the Lower Bann) constrain us to the east; the only way is north, and I propose to add five wards from the Causeway Coast and Glens district with a total electorate of 11,715:

Altahullion (2205) Garvagh 2287
Dungiven 2401 Kilrea 2530
Feeny 2292

This is not elegant, but it is sufficient, with a total electorate of 70,967 which is within the variation allowed for Northern Ireland though not within 5% of the quota. The northern spur of Altahullion ward is rather inelegant. It splits rather neatly by taking the townlands north of and including Leeke into the next seat to the north (see below), the townlands of Ardinarive and Straw then being the northernmost in the Glenshane part of the ward, the Leeke Water forming the division line. I do not have access to the census figures, but I doubt that this would pull the seat as a whole below 69,401.

This constituency leans much further south than the Commission’s proposed Glenshane, but it preserves enough (and includes the eponymous pass) so that I feel Glenshane remains a good name. The Commission’s Glenshane would include all five of the Causeway Coast and Glens wards that I propose to include, and 15 of the 25 Mid Ulster wards. (Of the others, 7 would be in the Commission’s North Tyrone at the Lough Neagh end, and the other 3 in the absurd Upper Bann and Blackwater seat.)

I must admit I regard this as the least satisfactory of any of my proposed sets of boundaries. I still think it is better than either the Commission’s proposed Dalriada or the ridiculous Upper Bann and Blackwater. It includes Coalisland, Cookstown, Draperstown and Dungiven which are all reasonably well linked by the A29 and A6 roads.

3.14 Causeway Coast and Coleraine

The effect of keeping the Blackwater as a constituency boundary works itself out fifty miles to the north. With the other adjustments proposed above, it is now possible to propose a northern coast constituency which includes 30 wards, all from the Causeway Coast and Glens district, with a total electorate of 72,383 which is within 5% of the quota. These wards are:

Aghadowey 2528 Greysteel 2896
Atlantic 2463 Greystone 2306
Ballykelly 2318 Hopefield 2491
Ballymoney East 2153 Macosquin 2389
Ballymoney North 2483 Magilligan 2269
Ballymoney South 2190 Mountsandel 2415
Castlerock 2546 Portrush and Dunluce 2197
Churchland 2590 Portstewart 2175
Clogh Mills 2638 Quarry 2514
Coolessan 2038 Rasharkin 2600
Dervock 2405 Roeside 2085
Drumsurn 2354 Route 2322
Dundooan 2448 University 2127
Dunloy 2494 Waterside 2801
Giant's Causeway 2448 Windy Hall 2700
(Altahullion)

21 of these are in the Commission’s proposed Dalriada constituency, and nine in Glenshane. The Commission’s proposed Dalriada unites odd parts of the coast with odd parts of the inland territory; the proposal above brings together wards from within a single local government district, based around the population centres of Ballymoney, Coleraine and Limavady.

As proposed above, the ugly salient of the Altahullion ward can be split at the Leeke Water.

3.15 East Antrim

The Glens of Antrim actually look south, along the east coast, at least as much than they look west; whatever the map may tell us, Carnlough is psychologically closer to Carrickfergus than to Coleraine. The remaining four wards of Causeway Coast and Glens district have 9,770 electors, and contra the Provisional Proposals should be included in East Antrim:

Ballycastle 2360 Lurigethan 2108
Kinbane 2579 Torr Head and Rathlin 2565
Loughguile and Stranocum 2518

The eastern part of the Mid and East Antrim district has 20 wards with 50,575 electors, and I agree with the Provisional Proposals that they all should be included in East Antrim and the rest of their district should not:

Ballycarry and Glynn 2617 Greenisland 2363
Boneybefore 2389 Islandmagee 2353
Burleigh Hill 2220 Kilroot 2889
Cairncastle 2623 Kilwaughter 2946
Carnlough and Glenarm 2244 Love Lane 2453
Castle 2625 Sunnylands 2642
Craigyhill 2552 The Maidens 2524
Curran and Inver 2469 Victoria 2657
Gardenmore 2491 Whitehead South 2546
Gortalee 2338 Woodburn 2634

And six Ballyclare and Jordanstown wards (the latter having been in East Antrim since it was created) make up the numbers from the Antrim and Newtownabbey district, with 15043 electors:

Ballyclare East 2580 Ballyrobert 2469
Ballyclare West 2647 Doagh 2389
Ballynure 2519 Jordanstown 2439

The Commission’s proposals include only Jordanstown in East Antrim, and then another nine Antrim and Newtownabbey wards to the south. I found that Ballyclare was a discrete building block which makes up the numbers. The southernmost border at Jordanstown is a little untidy, but I think it is better than the Provisional Proposals which dances through the streets of Glengormley.

This gives a total electorate for the new East Antrim of 75,388 which is within 5% of the electoral quota.

3.16 West Antrim

The Provisional Proposals for West Antrim are pretty awful, Ballymena and Antrim town both divided from their northern hinterlands and a weird salient reaching east as far as Glengormley, which is not usually regarded as being in the west of the county. This is unnecessary; a perfectly viable constituency can be created around the western ends of the two local government districts concerned.

This means 20 western (Ballymena) wards from Mid and East Antrim with 45,731 electors (the 15 that the Commission would include in West Antrim, plus Cullybackey, Glenravel, Kirkinriola, Maine and Portglenone):

Academy 2110 Galgorm 2370
Ahoghill 2576 Glenravel 2446
Ardeevin 2344 Glenwhirry 2280
Ballee and Harryville 2299 Grange 2631
Ballykeel 2159 Kells 2417
Braidwater 2099 Kirkinriola 2242
Broughshane 2650 Maine 2275
Castle Demesne 2030 Park 2137
Cullybackey 2043 Portglenone 2318
Fair Green 2023 Slemish 2282

And 11 Antrim wards from Antrim and Newtownabbey with 26,061 electors (six of these are in the Commission’s South Antrim, and five in the Commission’s West Antrim):

Antrim Centre 2583 Shilvodan 2456
Cranfield 2300 Springfarm 2924
Fountain Hill 2090 Steeple 2135
Greystone 1934 Stiles 2356
Parkgate 2365 Toome 2541
Randalstown 2377

For a total of 71,792 which is within 5% of the quota.

3.17 South Antrim

Finally, the South Antrim of the Provisional Proposals winds from odd streets in Glengormley around Belfast to odd streets in Lisburn; the boundaries as proposed are a good match for ward boundaries, but not for much else on the ground.

A better solution is to combine the core of Newtownabbey, other than Jordanstown, Ballyclare and the two wards in North Belfast, with the territory east of Lough Neagh, north of Lisburn and west of Belfast. Much of this area is already united inside the Antrim and Newtownabbey district, from which we take these 21 wards with 49,111 electors (this includes six of the twelve Antrim and Newtownabbey wards that the Commission proposes to be in South Antrim, six of the sixteen that it would place in West Antrim, and nine of the ten that it would put in East Antrim):

Abbey 2281 Glengormley 2318
Aldergrove 2524 Hightown 2087
Ballyduff 2332 Mallusk 3217
Ballyhenry 2107 Monkstown 2242
Burnthill 2454 Mossley 2502
Carnmoney 2109 O'Neill 2154
Carnmoney Hill 2280 Rathcoole 2144
Clady 2489 Rostulla 2452
Crumlin 2457 Templepatrick 2420
Fairview 2110 Whitehouse 2118
Glebe 2314

The remainder is eight wards from Lisburn and Castlereagh with 21,386 electors (all of these are in the Commission’s proposed South Antrim):

Ballinderry 2693 Maghaberry 2701
Ballymacoss 3064 Magheralave 2318
Derryaghy 2616 Stonyford 2122
Glenavy 2394 White Mountain 3478

As observed above under Lagan Valley, my proposed boundary through the northern fringes of Lisburn is not fantastic, but I think it is an improvement over the Provisional Recommendations.

This seat would have 70,497 electors, which is more than 5% below the quota but above the 69,401 threshold.


  1. Conclusion and other observations

The new system of boundary reviews after every Westminster election cannot but be disruptive to the ties between voter and representative. The Commissioners’ current mandate is to reduce Northern Ireland from 18 seats to 17. Given the massive pre-referendum increase in voter registration in England, Scotland and Wales in the first half of 18, which was clearly not matched in Northern Ireland, it must be considered very likely that the 2023 review (like the aborted 2011-12 review) will be for 16 seats rather than 17.

There is little that the Commission can do about this, but it might be appropriate to note the considerable disruption to local civil society which will be caused by the application of the current legislation. It is not just political parties (though the impact on their internal structures is real and will cause serious inconvenience to the democratic process).

It is no longer the responsibility of the Boundary Commission to recommend the numbers of seats in the Northern Ireland Assembly to be allocated to each constituency; that is set by legislation at 6, falling to 5 for the next election. This means that Assembly representation will also be subject to the same change and uncertainty as Westminster representation. It would surely be better to allocate Assembly seats proportionally between the new local government districts, whose boundaries are unlikely to change.

As I reside and work in Belgium it is unlikely that I shall attend any of the public hearings. I wish the Boundary Commissioners and their staff well in the coming months.

Comments

( 11 comments — Leave a comment )
thnidu
Oct. 23rd, 2016 08:18 pm (UTC)
Typo?
Though I have no connection with Northern Ireland and no familiarity with electoral area mapping beyond that of an average educated American, I was interested in your brief description of this post and read some of it before skimming to about the halfway point, then skipping to the end. At the end of §3.2 I stumbled over this sentence:

The total electorate of these wards is 75,389, which is within 5% of the quota, even if a couple of hundred if the northern tip of Blackwatertown is moved to Upper Bann.

Specifically, the two "if"s threw me. I can't find any way to parse the first "if"-phrase. Perhaps you meant that to be "within", or to be omitted?

I don't know if this comment will be useful to you, but I'm wondering about that sentence.
(Anonymous)
Oct. 23rd, 2016 08:49 pm (UTC)
Re: Typo?
I think the second "if" is "of".
nwhyte
Oct. 23rd, 2016 09:30 pm (UTC)
Re: Typo?
Thanks. The second "if" should be "in".
thnidu
Oct. 25th, 2016 04:55 am (UTC)
Re: Typo?
Then shouldn't "is" become "are"?:

The total electorate of these wards is 75,389, which is within 5% of the quota, even if a couple of hundred in the northern tip of Blackwatertown is are moved to Upper Bann.
atreic
Oct. 24th, 2016 09:55 am (UTC)
Wow, geography is interesting and complicated.

Err, it's not your job to give me electoral geography / Ireland 101, but I'd be very interested if you had links to more information on:

'natural communities/ lines of communication / local ties / close links' - getting these wrong seems to be the thing that's ired you most, but defining them definitely seems more of an art than a science. Is this NI politics I don't know the details of, and 'communities' are some sort of British/Irish/Ulster divide, or is this a more general problem of boundaries, like 'where most buses go' and 'who collects the bins'? Or are the two things tangled together, so it's a general problem that's more painful in NI?

Seat reduction> Is this a general thing across the whole of the UK? Who decided that, and what did they think they were trying to do?
nwhyte
Oct. 24th, 2016 06:23 pm (UTC)
is this a more general problem of boundaries, like 'where most buses go' and 'who collects the bins'?

That's pretty much it. If anything, more the former than the latter. I suspect that it is a common problem in Scotland and in England and Wales; I will do come research.

Seat reduction> Is this a general thing across the whole of the UK? Who decided that, and what did they think they were trying to do?

Yes. The Tories committed in 2010 to reducing the number of MPs from 651 to 600, and also reducing the variation in the number of voters in each seat to within a 5% bar of the average. (I've been told by someone who Was In The Room Where It Happened that the 5% limit on variation could easily have been a 2% limit.) Northern Ireland was granted a bit more flexibility, and a few island constituencies were given even more leeway.

There was a genuine point about inequity. The fact is that in 2005, Labour had less than a 3% lead over the Conservatives but won 356 of the 650 seats in the Commons to the Tories' 198; Cameron was ahead of Brown's Labour by over 7% in 2010, but was unable to secure a majority; and in the 2015 election a 6.5% lead - more than twice Blair's margin ten years before - gave Cameron 330 seats to Labour's 232, a majority of 11 seats rather than 63.

Labour-held seats tended to have fewer voters, due to a combination of circumstances arising from the aesthetic choices made by previous Boundary Commissions. To take a particularly striking example, Wales had ended up with 40 seats out of 650, 6.1%, despite having only 4.6% of the UK's population which is 30 rather than 40 proportionally. Of those 40 MPs, 26 were Labour in 2010 (when the Conservatives fell just short of a majority overall) and 25 in 2015. So you don't have to be a Conservative apologist to admit that there was a problem.

The Liberal Democrats as coalition partners accepted this at the beginning, but then broke ranks and voted out the specific changes, in revenge for the Tories sabotaging reform of the House of Lords. So we have essentially the 2010 reforms being enacted five years late, with consequently even more readjustment. It's a mess, and the 5% limit is going to give some awful maps, but there we go.
thnidu
Oct. 25th, 2016 05:01 am (UTC)
As I read your post, and even more as I read this comment, I kept thinking "gerrymandering". That word was coined over here, in Boston; do you use it up over there?

Edited at 2016-10-25 05:02 am (UTC)
nwhyte
Oct. 26th, 2016 07:20 pm (UTC)
Oh yes!
atreic
Oct. 25th, 2016 09:31 am (UTC)
That's very interesting, thank you!

I definitely agree that in a one-man-one-vote democracy, one-vote-one-consistent-fraction-of-an-MP seems like a worthy thing to be aiming for, ie constituencies should be the same size. I'm not sure about 'fewer MPs is good' - I have a huge pile of thoughts about natural sizes of things, that at some point I should pull into a ramble on my own LJ, but the tl;dr is definitely 'finding the right size is hard'. But MPs seem really really busy, having slightly more of them rather than slightly fewer of them in a rich society that can afford them would probably have been my natural tendancy.

I'm now also very distracted by philosophical thoughts about 'what is a community that needs representing'. Like, 'people who live in this town' definitely have something in common (like 'can go to their MP's office easily') but 45,000 'people who are 20 and renting' might be a more meaningful political unit than 'people in the same area'. Of course, if you think about this for too long you just invent PR, because you conclude 'people who want to vote for the greens' are a more meaningful political unit than 'people who live near each other'...
(Anonymous)
Nov. 3rd, 2016 09:16 pm (UTC)
Good job!
A really strong set of proposals. Overall looks a significant improvement on the commission proposals, and better than my own attempts, and your own first draft.
There had to be some "rough" edges and to limit it to an inelegant looking Mid Ulster, and the new housing developments in Lisburn being cut off from the rest of the town, is good going.
Usually counter proposals focus on improving one or two constituency while ignoring the knock on effects. The commission should be willing to take an improved overall plan and start again.
(Anonymous)
Mar. 30th, 2017 07:32 am (UTC)
Test, just a test
Hello. And Bye.
( 11 comments — Leave a comment )

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